Inventing History : forgery: a great British tradition (British History)

[Mick Harper]

Speaking of conspiracies we have not run our competition for some time. The rules are very simple. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Conspiracy Theories have been launched in the modern era, ie since the Kennedy assassination, but the relative recentness of the phenomenon combined with the necessary adroitness of the conspirators, means that so far very few have come to light. There is also the problem that the smaller ones might have been solved but we haven't heard about them because of conspiratorial control of the media.

Therefore the AEL is offering a large cash prize (or equivalent) to anyone who comes up with a Conspiracy Theory, large or small, that turned out to be true. Already well-known examples qualify.

[Boris Tabaksplatt]

If a conspiracy theory, large or small, proved to be true then would it indicate all conspiracy theories are true, or would it just be categorised as the exception that proves the rule?

[Boreades]

I don't believe Trinity House qualifies as a conspiracy, as it quite openly and proudly displays its history and heritage as a quasi-Druidic/masonic Lodge with a Master, Brethren and fraternity.

https://www.trinityhouse.co.uk/about-us/trinity-house-fraternity

Elder Brethren: 13 members: a Master, four Wardens and eight Assistants.

https://www.trinityhouse.co.uk/about-us/trinity-house-fraternity/older-brethren

[Wile E. Coyote]

The poisoning of the All-Blacks.

Not that I blame South Africa for doing it. It is a great regret that England had not come up with this....

[Mick Harper]

How does that qualify as a conspiracy theory? Wasn't it just a conspiracy?

[Wile E. Coyote]

Hang on ...

Isn't a conspiracy theory later proven true......just that.....a conspiracy.

Is that a postal order coming my way?

[Mick Harper]

You are beginning to see the AE point in all this. Let's suppose the NZ poisoning story were not true (oh, the horror!). If so it could never be 'exposed'. Which is, after all, the only way a conspiracy can ever be put to bed. Which means that it will forever be a Conspiracy Theory and not a conspiracy.

If, on the other hand, it were true, three things could happen. Firstly things might pan out as the conspirators planned and nobody would ever know the NZ players were poisoned and that there had ever been a conspiracy. Secondly, the conspirators are rounded up and weighed off to jail -- it's a crime. Thirdly, the poisoning is discovered but the culprits are never identified and it is a Whodunnit?.

So are we to conclude that Conspiracy Theories are of their nature untrue? Not quite .... but I'll leave that for others for the moment.

[Boris Tabaksplatt]

The other interesting facet to the question of 'what is a conspiracy theory', is when a government takes covert action to ensure it achieves an outcome beneficial to the country's continuing stability and security.

In the specific case of the NZ rugby team getting food poisoning, a strong case can be made as to who did it and why. The involvement of The Right Honourable The Lord Carrington KG GCMG CH MC PC DL working alongside Mandela is a good clue to the who, and another look at the 1999 film Invictus beautifully illustrates the why. Of course none of this is a conspiracy, just the state influencing the outcome of an unimportant rugby match. While the important PR goal was to get the message across that a South African Nation could, with white and black working together, beat the world.

[Mick Harper]

I entirely disagree. If this were a deliberate act at government level the ramifications would have been astronomically greater than the mere winning of the cup. States can commit all kinds of crimes for their own benefit but this would not have been one of them. This is, as it were, a true conspiracy theory.

[Boris Tabaksplatt]

My suggestion about the who and why that I mentioned in my non-conspiracy theory above was meant to be illustrative of the problem that governments carry out many covert operations legally each year, to ensure the ongoing stability and success of their nation state.

These events are not conspiracies in the normal sense, just part of the way business has to be done. The only people would be needed to complete this exemplar operation were...

Lord Carrington (idea), Mandela (agreement), two secret service agents from the NIA. This would all be done by word of mouth - no evidence. LC and M would have no reason to confess. The two NIA agents have signed the secrets act and they would have been thrown to the wolves if they get caught or try to whistle-blow. Chances of those behind the operation ever being revealed to the public - close to nil. Very low risk (+deniability of senior involvement high), very high rewards.

[Mick Harper]

Low risk, you say. Let's just calculate how low risk it will have to be in the risk versus reward calculation involved when deciding whether to commit any crime.(let me know if you disagree with any of the figures)

Reward (if not found out):
Probability SA win over NZ without poisoning 40%
Probability SA win over NZ with poisoning 70%
Worth of glorious victory in the face of etc etc 100 points
Worth of glorious defeat in face of overwhelming etc 60 points
Coefficent of gain: 27.467 points

Penalty (if South African government poisoning numerous New Zealand nationals to win World Cup is discovered)
New Zealand breaks off relations, announces sanctions etc 500 points
South Africa kicked out of all rugby competitions for ten years 500 points
South Africa a world-wide laughing stock for next twenty years 1000 points.

But you say very low risk. Well, then, yes I advise go ahead. Nobody will ever know. Except I suppose ourselves but we know how to keep a secret here at the AEL.

[Boris Tabaksplatt]

Perhaps I'm not being clear. The SA poisoning was only being used to illustrate a class of conspiracy theories which fall outside the norm. Any theory about an activity planned and implemented by a country's secret service is not a theory at all as it cannot be falsified, the clue is in its name. Also the people involved are not conspiring, only doing their job of protecting their country and making it successful.

We have evidence from some countries that this goes on, but there is never proof to be found even if these operations go wrong. All we get is an endless string of different competing conspiracy theories either being pushed by the nutters, or being pushed by secret services themselves as controlled opposition.

A few examples of these government non-conspiracy theories have been declassified and published e.g. Cointelpro, Mockingbird, MKUltra, Gladio, White Propaganda.

[Mick Harper]

[Boris Tabaksplatt]

[Mick Harper]

So no actual examples then.