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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Careful Ignoral
Anybody who mouths the words 'Two-State Solution' should be required by law to say what they intend to do about the half-million* Israelis settled peaceably and permanently in the West Bank. If they intend the settlers to live in a Palestinian state, they must say so. Including whether they have the right to bear arms.
* The 220,000 Israelis in East Jerusalem and the 20,000 in the Golan Heights need not be dealt with at this time.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | But the big news came later.
| America is taking over Gaza! |
Nobody was quite sure whether Trump thought up the idea on the spot or it was actual US policy but either way we're for some merry times. Fifteen years of them, according to the Great Real Estator. To build, as he put it, the French Riviera of Araby.
There won't be any shortage of golf courses and Trump Towers, that's for sure. Imagine, Hamas terrorist one minute, bellboy the next. They'll lap it up. |
To Wiley's eyes this is just a revamped version of the deal that was offered by Team Trump to Hamas in 2020. Trump offered Hamas billions in development if they would hand in their weapons. By that time both Qatar, Egypt and the Hamas leadership were already getting rich developing new promenades ("Doha" "Egyptian" along the desirable sea front). Far from it being an open jail, restaurants and new blocks were going up everywhere. Trump saw the obvious potential. It was already reaching desirable destination status before the war started. Trump now wants this type of deal but without Hamas, as he rightly points out it is not achievable with them. He wants to build it bigger and better and without bad guys. It's what developers always say they will do.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The Gazans will be allowed to vote on it. And now the Israelis have disposed of Hamas, they will be free to vote the correct way. Israel did dispose of Hamas, right?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Can we please stop spending quite so much time agonising over whether this or that nutter should or should not have been in a position to kill this or that person. Unless you want to lock up all nutters all the time the odd one will kill the odd one. Get used to it.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Can we please stop spending quite so much time agonising over whether this or that nutter should or should not have been in a position to kill this or that person. Unless you want to lock up all nutters all the time the odd one will kill the odd one. Get used to it. |
The problem is that we won't get used to it, because killings currently happen so infrequently in our lived experience.
We actually need it to happen a lot more often if we are ever to consider following your advice.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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A bit of a paradox there, Wiley. However there is an AE reason for making it a policy not to make a song and dance every time.
1. Let's suppose we have the reached the absolute acme of everything that is available to reach the perfect mean between minimising the number of deaths and the maximising of freedom for nutters.
2. As is inevitable, sooner or later a free nutter kills someone.
3. Nation goes into shock horror mode.
4. Enquiries are launched, reports are written, proposals are made, policy is changed.
5. We are no longer at the absolute acme of everything that is available to reach the perfect mean between minimising the number of deaths and the maximising of freedom for nutters.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wiley reckons we Europeans should preemptively gift Turkey (who it seems is getting imperial ambitions) North Cyprus. This will stop another war in Europe before it even breaks out.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Greece, Turkey, Cyprus
It’s the fiftieth anniversary of Cyprus getting divided, north and south.
There’s no particular crisis going on there at the moment and I don’t have any vested interest in anything Greek, Turkish or Cypriot, so this is a perfect opportunity to tease out some
| general principles about divided places. |
You know, the places where there are crises and about which everyone has so much passionate interest that teasing out general principles is the last thing on anyone’s mind. ‘It’s my guys, right or wrong.’ This won’t save little old neutral me attracting bile from Cyprus aficionados, assuming I get any attention at all. Either Greek bile or Turkish bile depending what I say.
| Both, if I’m at the top of my game. |
But you’re not a Cyprus freak, you’re not entirely sure where Cyprus is, you just want to know the general principles, so here goes. What’s the basic problem?
| Cyprus is an island with two populations. |
Doesn’t sound much of a problem but it’s never been solved in the whole recorded history of divided islands. Of divided anything. It’s never been solved in the whole recorded history of Life on Earth, and we’ve got the petri dishes to prove it. So here’s the first, and in some ways, the only general principle
| You’re not going to solve the Cyprus problem. |
I have to say this because everyone is always coming up with plans to solve the Cyprus problem. These plans always have one thing in common:
| Turkish and Greek Cypriots can get along if only…. |
They won’t. They can’t. The petri dish does not lie. They’ll probably get along perfectly well if they are in separate petri dishes but, if not, the problem will be solved by one bacteriophage reducing the other to a decorative speckle. Hence the First Axiom of Divided Politics:
| One side is always opposed to two petri dish solutions. |
The one that doesn’t have to worry about being the decorative speckle. In this case, the Greek Cypriots. They demand Cyprus be one petri dish… er… country. The entire world except Turkey and Turkish Cypriots are a hundred and ten per cent behind them. Even though
| nobody can say why Cyprus should be one country. |
It never has been before. It has always been part of someone else’s country and that someone else kept all Cypriots in check — Greek, Turk or A N Other. The moment Cyprus became independent and one country in 1960, courtesy of the pained departure of the last bunch of overlords (the British)
Actually, it wasn’t too bad — by international standards — but enough to keep Cyprus intermittently on the front pages. I won’t go through all the argy-bargy but suffice it to say it was all very, very standard:
* the majority would never do enough to satisfy the minority
* the minority could never be satisfied whatever it was
* the majority eventually turned to ‘other means’
* the minority riposted by ‘other other means’
I never shirk from apportioning blame so I can say
* the Greek Cypriots wouldn’t allow Turkish Cypriots enough autonomy
* the Turkish Cypriots wouldn’t recognise the realities of all minorities
* the Greeks (of Greece) should never have attempted union with Greece
* the Turks (of Turkey) should never have taken a third of the island for Turkish Cypriots who were less than a fifth of the total population.
| But it’s lucky they did because it’s just what’s needed. |
Right now, there are ‘ongoing talks about re-unification’, there are always ongoing talks about re-unification. The world community likes it that way, it gives the impression something is being done. Both sets of Cypriots are happy to oblige, it’s no skin off their noses, nothing’s going to happen any time soon.
| One or other of them will make sure of that. |
So that means it’s down to me. Of course I have to obey my own precepts (unless I can wriggle out of them) so I won’t be solving the Cyprus problem. I will be suggesting instead that
Turkish Cypriots!
You’ll have to give up a chunk of land — you’ll get a fifth of the island not your present third — but you get total independence in return. Though not to become part of Turkey. Sorry guys, maybe later but don’t even think about it, you’re on your Jack Jones for better or worse.
You’ve done all right for fifty years with only Turkey on your side so you should be apples with everyone on your side (except maybe Greece, but we can handle them). You can call your country whatever you like — but remember Greece is still giving Macedonia a hard time because of Alexandria the Great so don’t be too provocative. But you will be a country, like all others. Absolutely sovereign. (And that applies to you, Turkey, so butt out even if you’re invited in.)
Greek Cypriots!
You get all that extra land. Yes, I know it was always your land but let’s face it, after fifty years, it feels like new land. But in return you have to kiss goodbye for ever, in perpetuity, no crossed fingers behind your back, to Cyprus. Of course you’re free to keep the name.
In fact you’re free to … er…be exactly the way you’ve been for fifty years. With a bit extra! Aren’t you the lucky ones. Now look, we all know Cretans are liars but there’s to be no messing when it comes to the Turkish end of your island. That’s gone and it’s never coming back. If you’re going to get all sentimental about it, the deal’s off. Alexander the Great indeed.
Since this can only come about by agreement (hah!) they’ll all have a wonderful time. Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots will be co-operating like mad. Honestly, they really will. It will be boom-boom time down Cyprus way, and plenty to go round. They could easily end up as a single federalised all-island state in the first flush of lovey-dovey. Wouldn’t the world community just love that?
| They’ll be dishing out peace prizes like confetti. |
Though not to me, I will be doing my best to rain on the parade. Why? Because two populations under one roof always end up killing each other no matter how keen on it everyone is at first. It’s an iron law. Two-state federal states? Never heard the like.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | Why? Because two populations under one roof always end up killing each other no matter how keen on it everyone is at first. It’s an iron law. Two-state federal states? Never heard the like. |
The Troubles being an example?
But the Catholics in Northern Ireland may have a Cunning Plan. Keep breeding (it's the Catholic way) and produce enough new Catholics to become the majority population. Then they can democratically vote to rejoin Eire.
Unless the ghost of Boris Johnson or some other Remain politics surface to torpedo the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Anglo-Irish-Agreement
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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This has already been achieved (in 2022). It has not made the slightest difference. No (southern) Irish government would ever accept a million Proddy dogs barking 'No surrender', 'Kick the Pope', 'where are our government subsidies' etc.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Three Baltic states cut off all energy links with Russia today and joined the European grid Agencies |
This is all very well and I'm sure Russia is feeling the pinch so much she'll be coming cap in hand with a Ukraine peace deal any day now. What's worrying me is the day after the peace deal. Is Europe going to live on expensive overseas gas and oil forever or go back to using cheap Russian supplies?
With so much investment in putting together an alternative network will the EU mandarins admit the whole ruinous operation was a vast waste of money and didn't slow Putin down by an iota? No, they'll warble on about how important not relying on Russia is even though they've just demonstrated they could do it in a breeze when it was necessary not to.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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I've just read (somewhere) that the EU is now going to raise the “CO2 Tax” from about €45/tonne to somewhere over €300 / tonne.
This is on top of the existing price of oil and gas.
This is somehow (magically) not expected to have any effect on whether manufacturing industries decide to stay in production inside the EU. Or even continue to exist as viable businesses.
Not much mentioned in the MSM in all the "We Are Winning" talk is that the sanctions (not affecting us more than Russia) also included a ban on the import of cheap Russian fertilisers. The cost of which for farmers is now three or four times the price it was a few years ago. What could possibly go wrong?
The share price of Gazprom is offered as evidence that sanctions are winning. Ignoring any idea that Gazprom is making its profits elsewhere, trading with BRICSS countries, and not using the US petrodollar to fix the prices and share value.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The whole 'inflation panic' was caused by EU sanctions. (Thank God we weren't at war or it could have got serious.) Even a return to the status quo ante is no longer possible because the whole world has got used to the way things are now. Will Russian fertiliser be cheap ever again? Wasn't Ukraine No 2? If so, I doubt they'll want to stay in such a slow lane.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Didyasee Trump's spokesman making mincemeat of poor Vicky Derbyshire on Newsnight over the Ukraine peace proposals? I may not vote the Trump ticket but I do like watching liberal pigeons coming home to roost and flying splatt into their loftily superior faces.
We all know the expression 'doing good by stealth' but Trump does it by ... what is the opposite of stealth?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It now remains to be seen how I will fare on Medium. What I have been arguing for the last year or two -- and been ferociously denounced for saying it by all and sundry -- looks as though it's coming true. Like I keep saying, so long as Zelensky keeps control of the Crimea Canal, all will be right with the world.
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