| View previous topic :: View next topic |
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
 |
|
Europe is once more up for grabs
The whole EU project was based on a German/French condominium. (West) German industry and French agriculture were to be protected, politics was to be in the hands of a personal collaboration between Adeneur and A.N. French Other, and military security was provided passively by the US. This was challenged first by de Gaulle and then by the advent of the UK into the EU.
Since Britain refused to take sides--as well as becoming increasingly obstructionist on its own account--the result was an impasse. This allowed the EU bureaucrats to gain ascendancy culminating in a Europe of the Euro, Schengen, Lisbon et al but also an increasing disenchantment with the EU itself and a crisis of confidence with and in 'Brussels'.
The rise and rise of Germany, especially after reunification, meant the EU had largely become a German satrapy by the time the UK left (somewhat accidentally). Nothing now, it seemed, could challenge German ascendancy but Merkel's disastrous handling of the migration issue, followed rapidly by Covid, Trump, the Ukraine crisis and the halt in German economic miracles has put everything once more back in the melting pot.
France saw its opportunity by beating the military drum but Germany (rather unexpectedly) has taken up the challenge. We await what comes next.
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Boreades
In: finity and beyond
|
|
|
|
King Charles' piggy bank is set to get stuffed full to bursting.
| Crown Estate to make billions of pounds from Miliband wind farm spree |
What spree?
| Giant floating wind farms to be moored off south-west coast |
What for?
| Large parts of the UK’s seabed are to be rented out to offshore wind companies building 300m turbines as tall as London’s Shard skyscraper. A tender for three sites in the Celtic Sea has now been launched to host the wind farms, which are to be mounted on individual floating platforms as big as a football pitch. |
Did you know these used to be worthless parts?
| This will turn once-worthless stretches of subsea land into some of the valuable parts of the Crown’s portfolio, which also includes Ascot Racecourse and large parts of central London. |
Presumably because nobody is fishing there for fish?
And to cap it all, a little misdirection.
| A total of seven ports have been put forward to build the turbines, including Plymouth, Bristol and Swansea. |
They won't actually be making the giant turbines there. Just assembling the kit of parts. Probably made in China.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
Did you know the modern world is built on a chicken? Of course you did, but I'll fill in the intermediate steps in case you were having your BCG that day.
1. Anthony Fisher goes to America and observes the broiler chicken industry getting underway.
2. He develops a multi-million chicken industry in Britain.
3. With the money he starts a think tank, The Institute of Economic Affairs, that promotes capitalism raw in beak and claw.
4. Sir Keith Joseph, a senior conservative, reads and is converted by IEA literature.
5. Sir Keith Joseph converts a junior Conservative, Mrs (as she then was) Margaret Thatcher to the cause.
6. Sir K stands for the Tory leadership, makes a gaffe about poor people having too many children, stands down
7. Thatcher, Thatcher, the-leadership-snatcher.
8. John Redwood reads IEA literature and invents 'privatisation'.
9. Mrs Thatcher becomes prime minister.
10. Mrs T summons Mr R to set up privatisation annexe at No 10.
11. Tory government very unpopular, Mrs T on way out.
12. General Galtieri invades the Falklands.
13. Mrs T wins landslide.
14. Flushed Thatcher forces privatisation proposals for British Telecom despite intense opposition in Tory ranks..
15. No-can-do, say City stockbrokers, there are not enough shareholders in Britain.
16. Redwood invents telemarketing of BT shares to the British public.
17. Whole thing a great success.
18. Flushed, Tories start privatising everything in sight.
19. Impressed, rest of the world starts privatising everything in sight.
20. That's as far as I've got with David Dimbleby's The Hidden Hand on Radio 4.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
In this day and age, when elections must be fair and free, it has become the vogue to imprison the Leader of the Opposition for crimes which, whether fair or foul, can't be decided until after the election.
The Tanzanian strongman has done this for October's general election but, just to make sure, his Electoral Commission have disqualified the entire opposition party because 'they didn't get their certificate in on time'.
I told them not to rely on TanzPost. I offered to take it round myself but they wouldn't hear of it.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
It's still not comfortable finding yourself lined up with Nigel Farage but when you're anti-liberal it's unavoidable on the odd occasion. (Actually AE principles say it should be more than occasional.) Nige's scathing refusal to accept the Riots Report (itself a radical position because you're not supposed to reject judicial enquiries) about there not being two-tier policing was spot on.
The idea that white northern rioters were getting the same treatment last year as southern black rioters did a coupla years back is patently false. It stems from the liberal overview that the northern rioters were actuated by racism whereas black rioting was because of racism.
* And what, pray, causes racism?
* Too many migrants to name one.
* Can we cut down on migrants?
* No, that would be racist.
All riots of course are triggered by righteous anger. This gave rise to a coupla 'internet myths'. The first was that the northern fascisti had been misguided by internet reports that the Southport stabber was a Muslim channel-crosser. Except the reports were true! He was a British born black Christian but it amounts to the same thing. This is the bit the liberalocracy can never understand.
| The rioting mind does not go in for the sort of hard and fast distinctions the chattering classes are so fond of. |
The second myth was that the internet caused the riots. Not so much by the message but by the speed of the messaging. Perhaps they don't have televisions in the north. But again this is really because our current masters hate the internet.
| They can't control it so it must be bad. | |
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
And so to Birmingham where the streets are paved with garbage because of a dustmen's strike of many months. These thoughts coursed through my First City mind:
1. Why were vast throngs of Brummies wandering up and down their clogged roads moaning about how their lives were being ruined by uncollected wheelie bins? It never occurred to a single one of them to say, "Let's have a whip-round, get a skip and chuck it all in."
2. Why on earth aren't the City Fathers saying, "Sod this for a game of soldiers, let's phone up RentoCrap Inc and ask them to take it away."?
3. Why isn't anyone saying Birmingham City Council simply can't afford to pay the dustmen more because this will trigger a whole new round of Equal Pay demands from women workers on a par with jobs that are on a par with the dustmen since the recent High Court ruling that pay is no longer dictated by supply and demand (mediated by strong unions) but by a completely daft and arbitrary system of equal pay which has to be backdated and has already put Birmingham in hock for billions so that Doris the canteen lady can get some more wonga for the stint she put in during the 1990's when our Harry had his back problems.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
The Chinese refer to 1839-1949 as the Century of Humiliation. They call it this because it marked 110 years of being defeated and subsequently controlled by the West. It is considered a shameful era.
They have over the last 50 years "Made China Great Again", whilst watching the US decline.
The idea that the US can win by adopting tarriffs, to which China will show weakness and capitulate, is nonsense, most Chinese will rally behind Xi to avoid another era of shame. The more Trump tries to humiliate the Chinese the more they will escalate.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
The rules for Great Powers on the way to Hegemony are different (diametrically so) than for Great Powers on the way out. Everything seems to work for the former, nothing does for the latter.
Hence China just oozes forward like a dominant strain of bacteria on a Petri dish. It scarcely matters what policies are adopted as long as they are forward ones. Sometimes China is halted, occasionally it might even be pushed back a smidgeon, but the advance is both relentless and unstoppable.
When it is 'Sick Man of Europe' Syndrome everything turns to ashes. Many, many policies are tried--which is itself a mistake. Battening down the hatches is probably best but that only makes the end inevitable. Even successful policies seem to have made the position worse once the smoke clears.
It really is extraordinary to watch both processes in action. (With the benefit of hindsight.)
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
You can watch the twin-track playing out in one of the chief areas of modern Great Power conflict, social media platforms:
1. The US holds all the cards and has effortless global domination
2. China blocks these and starts creating its own
3. US starts breaking up theirs!
4. One of the Chinese ones, TikTok, breaks into the US
5. US can block TikTok, can buy TikTok, can buy the US arm of TikTok
6. China can react any way it likes safe in the knowledge that the US (unlike China) is not an entity unto itself. Nobody will want a US-only TikTok but everybody will carry on using a world-except-US TikTok.
7. Even if the US happens to win across the board over TikTok, everyone knows it's had the worst of it.
NB Notice none of the other Great Powers are even players.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Boreades
In: finity and beyond
|
|
|
|
| Mick Harper wrote: | | And so to Birmingham where the streets are paved with garbage because of a dustmen's strike of many months. . |
Never fear, our Deputy PM will solve the problem.
| Rayner Calls in Army to Tackle Birmingham Bin Crisis |
How big is this army?
| MHCLG press office today admits that the regiment of army personnel sent to Birmingham consists of three people. |
Are these big rough tough squaddies that can moved mountains before breakfast?
Err, no it's "logistical" help.
| They will apparently provide operational support to already ongoing work to clear the backlog. | |
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
But it's interesting nevertheless. For some reason that escapes me, we are not allowed to use blackleg labour but we are allowed to call in the army. Remember the green goddesses? But only if there is some threat to life, limb or national security. So can you track down what is meant by 'ongoing work to clear the backlog'. Smells don't qualify. Ask Edinburgh in the middle of the Festival with a million foreign visitors 'taking the air'.
Ange is so archetypal Labour she must be a trial for Sir 'Lord' Starmer. If she upsets Unite she'll be hearing from her constituency re-selection panel. We've had backbench deputy leaders before but not no-bench deputy leaders.
PS Am I alone in developing a crush on her? As in 'between a coupla terraced houses she was working a flanker on'. But mainly her dress sense. 'If you wanna be a hippy, go join the sixties.'
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Boreades
In: finity and beyond
|
|
|
|
2022
| The Russian economy is failing |
2026
| Russian rouble crowned world’s best-performing currency as dollar declines |
| Its returns have vastly outpaced the next best performing currencies, the Swedish krona and Swiss franc, which were up 13pc and 11pc respectively. |
| The rouble has even beaten gold, a traditional safe haven asset for investors in times of upheaval, which has gained 23pc since the turn of the year. Silver has risen 12pc. |
Thank goodness M'Lady's investment company (Chateau Boreades Guernsey Ltd) bought all that "Indian" Vodka on futures contracts at 2022 exchange rates.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| Mick Harper wrote: | | But it's interesting nevertheless. For some reason that escapes me, we are not allowed to use blackleg labour but we are allowed to call in the army. Remember the green goddesses? But only if there is some threat to life, limb or national security. ' |
Tha army proved more effective than the fire brigade when called upon around here. The local kids did there normal thing of setting a car on fire, waiting for the fire engine to arrive and starting to throw missiles at the fire fighters. The army came up with a novel response outside of the paradigm. Problem sorted. Didnt happen again.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
2022
| The Russian economy is failing |
2026
| Russian rouble crowned world’s best-performing currency as dollar declines |
They are still in trouble, as you would expect, having involved themselves in a long costly war, interest rates are at 21%, they have significant labour shortages and inflation at 10%. The rouble is going up as Russian speculators think that Russia military and Putin are doing well, ie the rouble is performing better because of military/diplomatic rather than economic performance.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
The Perfidy of Sanctions August 23, 2024
They’ve been highly deleterious for Russia but totally disastrous for the west.
That was over Ukraine but it isn’t the first time the imposition of sanctions has had unintended consequences, so maybe it’s time to consider the whole question of sanctions. Like, why they shouldn’t be used. Perhaps not ever, but certainly almost never.
| Why are they deployed at all? |
The most obvious reason is they don’t cost anything. It doesn’t require putting a task force together or sending off stockpiles of weapons. There’s no need for any boots on anyone’s ground. Just somebody in a suit sitting behind a desk announcing that A won’t be able to do B unless and until C.
The less obvious reason is… it isn’t nothing. Unlike votes of censure in the Security Council or pious calls for ceasefires, it’s action this day. ‘We’re not messing around this time. Line in the sand. Up with this we will not put.’ Sanctions are always a no-brainer at the time.
| It’s what happens next that mean you need your brain examining if you start dishing out sanctions willy nilly. |
Which they always have to be. It’s not an exact science, more a ‘suck it and see’ situation. And when deciding what those suckers are gonna have to suck up, the first consideration is the ‘Look, ma, clean hands’ position. You can’t drive around using X’s oil while at the same time denouncing X for being an agent of Beelzebub. Oil is always top of the sanctions agenda, it’s so… visible.
| After sanctions, perhaps less visible. |
You may have to start queuing up at petrol stations now there’s no oil from X to be had for love or money. When you do get to fill up, it costs an arm and a leg because you’ll have to use Y’s oil (or X’s from the grey market). Who said sanctions don’t cost anything?
But OK, pretty soon somebody else has ridden to the rescue with their oil, prices settle down. And X is selling its oil to that somebody else’s ex-customers. Because that’s the central problem of all sanctions regimes:
* you will apply the sanctions
* your friends will apply the sanctions
* the people you can lean on will apply the sanctions
* leaving a hundred countries who won’t be applying the sanctions
They don’t have a beef with X. But they do find themselves in a whole new world because of your sanctions (if they’re going to be effective). You have just obliged them to open up a whole new relationship with X.
Or more exactly X is now obliged to have whole new relationships with people that weren’t on their radar a week ago. You keep those sanctions on long enough and it will be worth investing in a whole new network of pipelines. I just hope you can get everything back to normal when it’s all blown over.
| As we know, sanctions take time ‘to bite’. |
But for whom? You live in a country that’s got plenty of flexibility, plenty of reserves, plenty of room to manoeuvre. You’ve got spare everything. Most of the world doesn’t.
* When wheat prices go sky high because of your sanctions on X
* When the hungry hordes are hitting the streets in protest
* When governments are tottering trying to keep a lid on it all
* Are they going to be blaming X?
* Are they going to be blaming the Chicago spot futures market?
* Or are they going to be blaming you?
Let’s hope you’ve got plenty of spare fencing for mending them. But this is all by the by, it’s whether sanctions work on X that’s the acid test. Is X going to stop doing Y because you have denied them Z? Well, put yourself in their shoes.
| When was the last time you buckled because some bunch of foreigners were messing with your shopping habits? |
I think you buckled down, didn’t you? Especially if you happened to live in a country where your government doesn’t give you a lot of choice in the matter. Are the people of X any different from you? Does X have a government who cares if they aren’t?
But enough of theory, let’s take a look at what happens when sanctions are applied in practice. Naturally we shall select
* the most complete imposition of sanctions there has ever been
* the one that been applied longer than any other
* by the strongest power there has ever been
* against a very, very small county
and see what happened. If that didn’t work, what price yours?
In the early 1960’s the United States put swingeing sanctions on Cuba. The Americans bought nothing from Cuba, the Americans sold nothing to Cuba. Since the USA was Cuba’s main trading partner by far, you couldn’t get much more savage than that. How did it work out?
* Cuba sold its entire sugar crop (ninety per cent of all its exports) to Russia at higher prices than the Americans had been paying.
* The Cubans imported everything they needed from elsewhere. (We sold them Leyland buses from Lancashire, as I remember.)
* Though not for long because the Cuban economy promptly nose-dived and has been nose-diving ever since.
* Not because of American sanctions but because of dopey old Marxism.
* Did the sanctions work? Put it like this, the dopey old Marxists are still in power sixty years on and don’t look like going anywhere anytime soon.
* But surely the people rise up constantly in protest against their Marxist masters for bringing them nothing but sixty years of misery?
* Well, no, they have been generally rather warm towards their Marxist government because capitalist American sanctions have been keeping them in poverty for sixty years. Ask anyone.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
The Library Index 
FAQ 
Search
Register
Profile 
Log in to check your private messages 
Log in 
