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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It is absurd Trump saying he's having difficulty persuading Zelinsky to make peace.
Zelinsky has accepted the thirty-day truce and has indicated he will accept its indefinite extension. That's what we call peace. The lack of war. It is Putin that won't accept it because he wants all sorts of other stuff.
If Trump has any sense he will bring all the pressure he can bring to bear on Putin to accept a truce. Then walk away. We will then all find out what everyone's bottom line is:
| "Now we are essentially back to where we were in February 2022, what are we going to do about it?" I promise you... |
* Neither Russia nor Ukraine will want to fight a Russo-Ukrainian War all over again.
* Neither USA nor Europe will want to get involved in Russo-Ukrainian affairs again.
* All will be well in the best of all possible worlds i.e. the one we live in.
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Ishmael
In: Toronto
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | There is another way of looking at it. If this stuff is left to the tender mercies of its legal owners, the people of Iraq, it will either be lost, neglected or ignored. If it is 'brought to' the west it will be seen by millions, studied by thousands and preserved sine die in air conditioned opulence. |
I was about to add this. Glad you did.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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About 70% of what used to be Gaza are now no-go zones or areas that must be evacuated.
That is up from the 17% buffer zone. What the IDF are doing appears to be evacuating and then razing to the ground all buildings bordering the buffer zone, so incrementally increasing the size and space of the original border zone from its original 17% of Gaza to something like 70% of Gaza.
Whether the ultimate aim is to allow Hamas/the Palestinians/the Gazans the remaining 30% of Gaza, or the IDF want the full 100%, remains unclear.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I can only discern two (rational) Israeli policy goals in Gaza:
1) To cause so much suffering that the Gazans will turn on Hamas as the cause of their misery. The Gazans stay, Gaza stays, Gaza becomes a peaceable neighbour.
2) To cause so much suffering the Gazans leave Gaza which then becomes .... well, it doesn't matter, so long as it is a peaceable neighbour.
To me, neither policy seems anywhere near being a practical possibility. Even if they are achieved, what comes after won't necessarily be much different from what is there now.
This being so, one must assume that the 'peaceable neighbour' policy is not being pursued and that Israel intends Gaza to be part of Israel. Not necessarily de jure 'Israel' but some kind of protectorate that makes it a de facto part of Israel.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Chutzpah in Action
Israel ordered the demolition of hundreds of houses and buildings in the West Bank yesterday. They gave the Palestinians twenty-four hours to remove their belongings as Israeli soldiers moved in. This is part of a planned new separation wall and large areas of Palestinian agricultural land have been confiscated and villages isolated to build it.
Israel says it is to protect a road connecting the whole of the West Bank from teenagers throwing rocks.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The man behind the Museum of the Bible is Steve Green, the billionaire owner of Hobby Lobby. He was bang to rights on smuggling hookey gear through US Customs on multiple occasions. Not to mention being filmed in cahoots with local scumbags in Iraqi hotel rooms.
As a fundamentalist Christian he was held to a lower standard and let off all criminal charges. |
The guy from Bargain Hunt has been finally charged, the point is that, most of the time, it's not whether the goods are real or fake (the sytsem doesn't mind), it's who profits?
In the Bargain Hunt case it is alleged that the likeable presenter became involved with Nazem Ahmad, a diamond and art dealer who was on a Treasury sanctions list, and Ahmad (currently whereabouts unknown) is charged in the US over claims that he uses his collection, which has included masterpieces by Pablo Picasso, Antony Gormley and Andy Warhol, to launder money for the banned Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Guess the Odd One Out
| Wiley wrote: | | masterpieces by Pablo Picasso, Antony Gormley and Andy Warhol |
Correct. Andy Warhol. He just messes about with old prints.
And Antony Gormley and Pablo Picasso.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Modern brand art is the best fit, with big profits, it's also lightweight and difficult to track. He would probably have got away away with it if he hadn't admitted it all on electronic records, so it was a guilty plea.
"That's got to be worth a fiver. "
"No, it's only worth three"
"OK, let's see what the probation report says"
Maybe the judge will take pity, but I doubt it, the guy is an expert.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I'm not surprised art has got itself involved with terrorism. It has, by definition, to be cutting edge.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Everyone is lauding Zelensky for going to Istanbul for peace talks when
(a) he refused to go initially (demanding a total ceasefire before he went)
(b) promptly caved when Trump told him to
(c) will show up, the talks will be a non-starter, Zelensky has shown yet again how anxious he is to stop the war
(d) emphasising to the Ukraine frontline soldiery that maybe they are fighting and dying for nothing
(e) leaving Trump to continue doing what he is doing now. (Whatever that is. I doubt that even he knows.)
Moral: never leave your opponent to do nothing as his best course of action. (I am assuming it is Putin not Trump who is Zelensky's opponent.)
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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One aspect that doesn't get enough attention is the non-transactional position of Putin. It seems incomprehensible to us, as transactionists, for Russia to undergo such hardships simply to edge the border a little way westwards in a part of the world they have no vital interests in anyway. [Leaving aside the odd nuclear power station and irrigation dam which don't seem to be in sectors where the edging is taking place.)
For us, for Ukraine, for the ordinary Russian, it is either war or no war. And that choice is clear. Not so for Putin.
| As soon as peace arrives, the reckoning starts. |
Since that reckoning amounts to
* Putin started a war
* it cost Russia an arm and a leg
* to convert bits of Ukraine that were disputed to not-being-quite-so-disputed
* Putin has got a lot to answer for.
* But luckily for him
| while the war goes on, there cannot be a reckoning. | |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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"Mr President, we don't think you should shake the Crown Prince's hand."
"Why not"
"He ordered the killing of a journalist who had been critical of hm."
"Fair enough. I'll give him a big hug."
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Officially, Israel is blockading Gaza in order to rid Gaza of its Hamas government. The argument is that when the people of Gaza really start suffering, they will rise up against Hamas (or Hamas will get the message and leave of their own accord).
| The logic of the policy is that the Israelis are prepared for 1.7 million Gazans to starve to death in order to obtain a regime change. |
Oddly, this does not in itself break the 'laws of war'. The great majority of all sieges in human history have been settled when the inhabitants are on the point of starving to death. The great majority of all sieges in human history have been conducted to obtain a regime change.
Whether these 'laws of war' still hold is something we shall be finding out.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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This new Syrian dude continues to get lucky
The story so far:
1. Syria has been an ungovernable country, except by tyrannous governments, for its entire existence (since 1922).
2. Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Julani) only survived Bashar al-Assad's victory in the Syrian Civil War because his tiny rump of ex-Al Qaeda fighters were holed up in a corner of Syria deemed to be a safe haven by the World Community.
3. From where he managed to take over Assad's slice of Syria bloodlessly.
4. Syria was still ungovernable due to (a) the Alawites being unreconciled to the loss of 'their' government (b) the Kurds being unreconciled to any Syrian government (c) the Druze being catspaws of the Israelis (d) the majority Sunni population wishing to tyrannise (a), (b) and (c) at the first opportunity they got.
5. Syria would remain ungovernable because it was subject to the most swingeing sanctions the World Community could agree on.
6. And the threat of military intervention from (a) Israel (b) Iran (c) Hezbollah and (d) Russia.
1. Alawite and Druze risings have been put down by Sunni pogroms
2. Which were then stopped by Al-Sharaa's government sending the Sunnis home
3. The Kurds have sued for peace (with Turkey) and hence the Al-Sharaa government
4. Trump has just lifted all sanctions on Syria
5. Trump is in peace talks with Iran and Iran is no longer an active player in Syria
6. Israel has destroyed Hezbollah
7. Israel has got bogged down in Gaza
8. Russia has got bogged down in Ukraine.
| Maybe God was on his side. | |
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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He worked out that he would need to swap his Kameez for a sharp suit, and make friends with Turkey and Qatar, and the US would blindly follow along.
Zelensky should really have opted for a suit, if he wanted the US weapons.
Good leaders are always lucky.
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