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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| It was difficult conducting blind trials, dazzle ships vs non-dazzle. To this day nobody knows. But the era of drone warfare is presenting particular dazzle problems because drones find their quarries in two ways: their in-built programme (zebra stripes indicated) and via their human operator (zebra stripes contra-indicated). |
The function of dazzle, is not to prevent being found, it is to make the predator mistime their launch.
If the idea is to prevent being found then, navys will continue to opt for hazy grey.
Human captains of WW1 submarines, human operated drones and AI assisted drones, are all dependendent on using the same optical clues, to try to calculate their strike, so in theory can all be deceived.
You can normally (as in most things these days) get a better result by a combination of AI and human intellgence, but that does not mean you cannot be deceived. After all you dont have to get the drone to miss altogether to avoid a sinking or severe damage.
The disadvatage for these ships, using dazzle is that you are more like to be seen in the first place.
You just have to take your pick.
Its a trade off.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | The function of dazzle, is not to prevent being found, it is to make the predator mistime their launch. If the idea is to prevent being found then, navys will continue to opt for hazy grey. |
OK
| Human captains of WW1 submarines, human operated drones and AI assisted drones, are all dependendent on using the same optical clues, to try to calculate their strike, so in theory can all be deceived. |
I disagree. Humans recognise everything immediately and instinctively. (Or don't see them at all, as the case may be.) Drones are capable of detecting finer things, eg movement, but otherwise only what they are programmed to see. No matter how comprehensive the data base is, the other side can spring a surprise.
| You can normally (as in most things these days) get a better result by a combination of AI and human intellgence |
But that is the point. If you've got them both, the other side doesn't have a prayer. It is assumed only one or other is present (or one or other is uppermost in rapid decision-making.)
| but that does not mean you cannot be deceived. After all you dont have to get the drone to miss altogether to avoid a sinking or severe damage. |
OK
| The disadvatage for these ships, using dazzle is that you are more like to be seen in the first place. You just have to take your pick. Its a trade off. |
No it isn't because you don't know the terms of trade: what works and what doesn't work. Too few ships in too many different circumstances have had their dazzle razzled to have the book on it.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Is Putin a Commie Bastard?
He is in lots of ways but a report yesterday about the Ukrainian bombing of the port of Novorossiysk reminded us that Russia is currently the world's largest grain exporter.
Since, in some years of the latter Commie days (and with Ukraine, now the second largest exporter, fully on board), they were the world's largest importers of grain, he must be doing something right.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I am still stupefied at this statistic. A land of collectivised farms leads to one outcome, a land of owner-occupied or tenanted farms leads to the equal but opposite outcome. Both methods have been given a fair crack of the whip over several decades by the same (or similar) regimes. The land in question is the largest available testbed in the world.
You might think this carefully set up blind trial might be considered definitive and applicable to parallel situations. But that would be to overestimate the good sense of many people. Some of them known to me personally. Some of them are members of the government that presently rules over me.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The old Soviet model was based on transporting the surplus wheat from Russia and Ukraine along with western imports at state subsidised prices to the other Soviet Republics.
When te Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine and Russia were always evetually going to be large net exporters.
Livestock farmers, across all ex Republics, after the break up, were always going to lose out, as with no cheap state subsidised feed, you cannot easily support livestock.
Across all ex Soviet areas domestic meat and dairy production was wiped out, during the 1990s. (some think 50% of production was lost, causing massive poverty)
Its really the death of the Soviet Union and the loss of livestock farming, that leads us up to where we are, Russia and Ukraine now have wheat surplus' the ex soviet republics have lost a lot of dairy farming, so no longer need/"anyway cannot afford" to import as much wheat as they used to when it was Soviet subsidised. These places are now growing more wheat themselves to reduce dependence on Russia.
Russia or Ukranian wheat production is no more efficient than say Canadian.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | The old Soviet model was based on transporting the surplus wheat from Russia and Ukraine along with western imports at state subsidised prices to the other Soviet Republics. |
This is nonsense. Any 'surplus' that did arise was largely used up by Soviet citizens buying up bread, which was subsidised to the point of being virtually free, and feeding it to the one pig they were allowed to raise in their back garden. The 'other Soviet Republics' hardly had large enough populations to require substantial imports from either Russia or Ukraine, quite apart from their own domestic production.
| When te Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine and Russia were always evetually going to be large net exporters. |
What, they were suddenly going to start producing more grain than the entire Soviet Union had?
| Livestock farmers, across all ex Republics, after the break up, were always going to lose out, as with no cheap state subsidised feed, you cannot easily support livestock. |
I don't see how this is relevant.
| Across all ex Soviet areas domestic meat and dairy production was wiped out, during the 1990s. (some think 50% of production was lost, causing massive poverty) |
Nor this.
| Its really the death of the Soviet Union and the loss of livestock farming, that leads us up to where we are, Russia and Ukraine now have wheat surplus' the ex soviet republics have lost a lot of dairy farming, so no longer need/"anyway cannot afford" to import as much wheat as they used to when it was Soviet subsidised. These places are now growing more wheat themselves to reduce dependence on Russia. |
You seem to be have joined the ranks of the 'If only socialism had been properly administered...' brigade. Better luck next time.
| Russia or Ukranian wheat production is no more efficient than say Canadian. |
That's a criticism?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Are you arguing that Zelensky and previous Ukranian leaders have also done a great job, I mean after all they are after responsible now for 6-9% of global world wheat exports.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I was arguing that both Ukraine and Russia returned to standard agricultural practices once they had emerged from the collectivist embrace of the Soviet Union.
And, to be fair, the communal agriculture of Tsarist Russia. Serfs and ex-serfs are about as industrious on gentry estates as are employees on state collective farms.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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As is normal in a war, advances in the decisive branches get telescoped as each side counters the other's innovations. When it's a whole new branch of warfare, eg drones, they come thick and fast. When you've got German factories turning them out to your design, things are really sweet.
Here are a few developments that were new (to me) reported by Denys Davydov today (and new to him, half of them).
* The Russians have developed very real-looking mobile vegetation screens that hide their vehicles from visual detection. Since the vehicles are idle they have no heat signature either. So Ukrainians have developed hovering drones (hard to spot) with acoustic devices aboard. As soon as an engine starts the drone hops over the screen, secure in the knowledge that the truck will be full of very surprised enemy soldiers with no time to dive for cover.
* It is quite normal to dig artillery pits and infantry foxholes near the frontline, but the Russians have to build vast holes in the ground to bury their vehicles in the rear areas.
* At one point we were shown a stretch of enemy road that appeared to be littered with dozens of Russian military assets standing stock still! What on earth were they up to? They turned out to be Ukrainian ground drones waiting for the arrival of the Russian military assets.
* Further to Wiley's comments of a few days ago, Ukrainians drones have been programmed to look out for zebra stripes. Tally-ho!
* But the Russians are now experimenting with vehicles having bodywork treated to a miror-finish. What will happen when a drone sees another drone coming straight for it? Watch this fast diminishing space. 'Eh?' thinks drone AI, 'not diminishing quite fast enough.'
* Ukrainian drone camerawork seems now to be so sharp that Russian traffic on the supply road between Rostov-on-Don and Crimea gets reported back to Ukraine Drone Central in such detail they can distinguish between military/civilian lorries, petrol/ water tankers, vehicles with electronic jammers/ anti-drone guns/ physical drone defences and transports with soldiers aboard--even the units they belong to.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Less reported though is that only 17% of Russian traffic is affected by drone attacks.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Putin is preparing his Kaiserschlact, after the Duma elections. Wiley doubts they will be able to support to this. Ukraine is taking out both the established military logistics, and any improvised logistics eg Wild Berries, in preperation for this mobilisation now.
The worse thing that could happen for Russia is that they now start advancing again, as this will only encourage Putin further. They could even end up advancing and losing.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Putin is preparing his Kaiserschlact, after the Duma elections. |
A most appropriate selection of name, Wiley, in the circumstances.
| Wiley doubts they will be able to support to this. |
My man, Davidov, says it will be an unannounced mobilisation intended to raise three-quarters of a million young Russians pretty much plucked off the streets, pressgang-style.
| Ukraine is taking out both the established military logistics, and any improvised logistics eg Wild Berries, in preperation for this mobilisation now. |
I doubt this will much affect things.
| The worse thing that could happen for Russia is that they now start advancing again, as this will only encourage Putin further. They could even end up advancing and losing. |
This is the semi-official Ukrainian strategy. To cede territory very slowly inflicting maximum casualties along the way. The assumption being that Russia cannot fill the fallen ranks fast enough. If Putin really did bite the bullet and went in for full war mobilisation, this strategy might not work. (Though I don't believe this would work anyway.)
My own view is that Ukraine should quietly allow Putin to occupy the small amounts of the Donbas he doesn't occupy so he can announce victory and wrap up the war.
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