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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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All this talk of legalistic wrangling ignores the one salient fact: that Iran, without any prior warning, used lethal weaponry on commercial ships in Omani territorial waters who had every reason to suppose they had the right -- the permission, if you will -- to be there. There's no getting away from
| It was Iran who brought the MoU to an end and started this round of armed hostilities. |
* No doubt the US's behaviour was provocative.
* No doubt the Iranians could see the MoU was going in an unfavourable direction.
* No doubt there was a degree of divided command in Tehran.
* No doubt the Americans upped rather than downed the ante when it happened.
But this time, it's down to the Iranians. They pulled the moral rug from under their own feet and granted the high ground to Donald Trump.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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This is the background to which you refer.
According to Wiki.
On 19 June, US president Donald Trump announced a renewed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, facilitated by the US, Qatar and Iran.[86][87] Hezbollah announced an attack on Israeli forces attempting to capture Ali al-Taher in Nabatieh, Lebanon.[88] Israel continued to strike southern Lebanon numerous times.[89]
On 20 June, Iran declared that it closed the Strait of Hormuz again due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, describing them as a violation of its deal with the US. This claim was denied by the US military.[90][91] Shipping was stalled in the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's claimed closure of the strait. Some vessels approaching the strait deactivated their automatic identification systems to cross near the Omani shoreline and avoid Iranian military detection.[92] The MoU signed between the US and Iran included a clause stating that both parties will avoid threats or the use of force against each other.
On 21 June, Trump issued a threat to invade Iran if they closed the Strait of Hormuz, following Iran's claim of its closure due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. He warned that they "won't even make it back to their fucking country," suggesting a potential threat against Iranian negotiators in Switzerland.[93][94]
On 26 June, Iranian state media reported that at least three foreign oil tankers which tried to cross the Hormuz "without authorisation" from Iran had turned back after an Iranian warning.[95] On the same day, Trump accused Iran of violating the truce with US by launching drone attacks on ships in the Hormuz.[96] The United States Central Command later announced that in retaliation to the alleged truce violations, the US hit Iranian missile and drone storage facilities, as well as coastal radar stations.[97] Iran said that its retaliation to the attack will ?be "swift and decisive," prior to deleting the ?statement.[98] |
It looks to Wiley less one sided than you maintain.
| They pulled the moral rug from under their own feet and granted the high ground to Donald Trump. |
Donald Trump did not hold the moral high ground he had just 5 days before the breakdown, threatoned to invade Iran, and to killl the Iranian negotiators during their return, (!) if they did not do what the US wanted.
This was not a good look for the US, during a time when many outside observers wanted diplomacy, and the MoU to be peacefully progressed.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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You're forgetting I was there, Wiley. We both were.
1. The MoU was essentially a cease-fire, signed by both sides.
2. It was meant to last sixty days to permit further negotiations.
3. Those negotiations were proceeding.
4. After five days the Iranians broke the ceasefire.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Sorry, it wasn't five days. When checking how long it was, I asked Google's AI who came up with an interesting response
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Timeline of the Breakdown
June 17, 2026 The United States and Iran signed a 14-point temporary ceasefire agreement and MoU to pause hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Early July 2026 Iran attempted to enforce pre-approved shipping routes and control traffic in the strait.
July 6–7, 2026 Iranian forces fired on and struck multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over in response to the Iranian shipping attacks.
July 18, 2026 Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi officially announced the suspension of Tehran's commitments under the MoU, claiming the United States failed to lift sanctions and release frozen assets.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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It is pretty shocking isnt it, AI is even more guilty of Careful Ignoral than Wiley.......it looks like its trying to reverse engineer.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Yes, but unlike you, Mr A.I. has no choice in the matter. He cannot carefully ignore me. My words are already worming their way through his cerebral circuitry.
Later. But so are yours of course. It's a wonder he copes.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Scott Bessant predicts that Brent will be at $40.00 a barrel after the Iran war ends. It hasnt been that low at end time during the past 5 years.
Wiley Predicts that Brent will go over $100.00 today and keep rising over the next couple of weeks until it reaches $115.00 a barerel. That will be a five year high.
Trump is planning to get the price down before the midterms.
Trump ideally needs to negotiate two ceasefires, (there is no hope of peace deals) to get the price of gas falling quickly, although one would help.
Trump also needs, during a ceasefire, to keep up the suffocation of the Iranian economy, so that after the midterms, he can force a peace deal on terms better than Obamas.
The two wars Trump needs deals on Russia/Ukraine Iran/US, Israel are currently both escalating.
There is going to be a lot of US diplomacy, increasingly desperate in the next couple of monthes.
There is going to be a lot of breakthroughs posted to try and keep oil prices lower, as well as Bessant type posts of it will be $2.00 a gallon....in the future after its over....
Will Trump be able to keep it together, or will he under Iranian and under Russian provocation/prevarication continue to torch any work of his inexperienced negotiators?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Scott Bessant predicts that Brent will be at $40.00 a barrel after the Iran war ends. It hasnt been that low at end time during the past 5 years. |
There hasn't been a period recently when a major supply source was suddenly blocked, when the oil was gradually replaced from elsewhere, and then the blocked oil suddenly became unblocked. I'm going for $30.00 a barrel. Maybe even $10.
| Wiley Predicts that Brent will go over $100.00 today and keep rising over the next couple of weeks until it reaches $115.00 a barerel. That will be a five year high. |
A very reasonable prognosis.
| Trump is planning to get the price down before the midterms. |
He was. Then the Iranians kyboshed the MoU. Since then he has been unwisely dithering between bludgeon and tit-for-tat as the recipe for short-term mid-term success. He may however have given up entirely on electoral support -- which after all has not done him much good so far --and will treat his last two years in office as some sort of grand parade.
| Trump ideally needs to negotiate two ceasefires, (there is no hope of peace deals) to get the price of gas falling quickly, although one would help. Trump also needs, during a ceasefire, to keep up the suffocation of the Iranian economy, so that after the midterms, he can force a peace deal on terms better than Obamas. The two wars Trump needs deals on Russia/Ukraine Iran/US, Israel are currently both escalating. |
I am sure he knows as much as you do and realises it is either hopeless or it will all come good in the nick of time.
| There is going to be a lot of US diplomacy, increasingly desperate in the next couple of monthes. |
Or the reverse and he decides there's nothing more to be gained from foreign affairs. Not that I would personally ever use the word 'diplomacy' when it comes to Trumpian anything.
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