War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

We may have two insoluble problems on our hands and they might be the same problem. Let's suppose:

[Wile E. Coyote]

The Soviets did not withdraw out of Afghanistan becauuse they did not have domestic support, they could have kept it going militarily, and they were not so isolated in the world that they needed to give up.

According to Gorbachov it was more like an open wound.

Ukraine will probably be the same, it's going to slowly poison everything they do for the next 5-10 years or so. They are not going to fall apart, but they are going to have to grow and grow again their miltary sector at the expense of their civilian sector, and so drop further and fiurther behind the rest of the high growth Asian economies.

Eventually their own industrious folks will start wondering why China, India, Korea, now have so many modern shiny cities, flash cars, phones, and domestic appliances, whereas even with Russian oil and gas reserves they still remain poor.

Or maybe not, being a tad better off than Belarussians might just be enough for poor long-suffering Ivan.

[Grant]

When it comes to industrial production Russia outperforms France. It also has the world's greatest store of raw materials.

I don't think it's the basket case you want it to be.

[Mick Harper]

Somebody on the box said (to the effect) that Russia has an economy the same size as the Netherlands so which of them would you choose to trade with? Russia has always been a basket case, it doesn't seem to affect their foreign policy.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Russia produces weapons and extracts oil and gas. They have a goodish space programme. They spend 8% and rising on defence (military). The problem is that its production is all done old style. (Fordist factories). Unlike the Chinese or the US or Euope they are not using “mechatronics” machines, electronics, internet or AI. They have no advanced precision-making tools, in short, they are mass producing low quality consumer goods for their large population and their empire.

Tell me one high quality consumer good Russia produces.

Which is not to say they can't if they hadn't poisoned their system.

Don't get me wrong I keep saying that if they didn't invade people, they could zing along at 4% growth and develop precision tools, chips, AI, conductors and the rest.

But they have chosen to boost their miltary complex and the civilian bit is now becoming frozen in time.

They have a population three times the size of the French, with similar levels of industrial production, despite huge advantages in cheap natural resources.

Not basket, but not good.

[Mick Harper]

It shouldn't be ignored that in 1941 they shifted their entire industrial base a thousand miles east behind the Urals and scarcely missed a beat as they racked up production to numbers that overwhelmed Germany's industrial base.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Russia is commiting the military expenditure to win against Ukraine. It will take years but they are doing it.

It has no interest in peace, they fully intend to outspend their enemy. Even if this means they have to sacrifice parts of their civilian economy and large numbers of soldiers in the interim, whilst still using old Soviet stockpiles from the 1950s, motor bikes, civilian vans, donkeys, foreign mercenaries, buying back the arms they have sold to other nations at inflated prices, etc. They will do it until their newer weapons arrive.

Determination and Sacrifice are Ivan's strong points.

[Mick Harper]

This is my analysis too. When it was Russia versus Ukraine, USA and Europe, Putin was inching forward. Now Putin has persuaded Trump to go off and look for wars he can settle it will be Russia versus Ukraine and Europe. And Europe is antsy.

Zelensky is really going to have earn his stripes now. Does he cave but keep a rump Ukraine or does he fight on until there is no more Ukraine?

[Wile E. Coyote]

Ukraine is actually doing what it takes to get its territory back, they are now a very strong army thenmselves, well ahead of the Europeans, and probably one of the best in the world at drone warfare. If we forget about land for a second, Ukraine has driven back Russia and now has control of the sea. At the start the Russian fleet was shelling Odessa but it has lost about a quarter of its fleet and is now confined to the port of Novorossiysk, it's really down to Ukrainians using uncrewed sea vesssels. At sea Ukraine is holding the advantage for now. They can strike the Russians within Crimea.

Ukrainian drone production is up to 5 million a year, most Russian casualties are now caused by drones. In short Ukraine is now less dependent on the weapons of others.

Ukraine as well as Russia are adapting and gaining strength, would be my analysis. Zelensky's situation is nothing like as bad as it was at the time of the first, rather than the latest, talks in Istanbul.

[Mick Harper]

Why are you suddenly talking nonsense? Everything you say is true except for one thing

[Mick Harper]

I was premature to commend Donald Trump for so promptly lifting sanctions on Syria. I had condemned the West generally for not lifting sanctions as soon as the Assad regime fell on the grounds that they were only imposed because of the actions of the Assad regime.

By not doing so the West had turned sanctions from being designed to discourage human rights violations anyone would heartily condemn into demands that Syria adopt western values. Which might not be Syrian ones. Or even wise ones given the circumstances Syria found herself in.

But Trump has gone a step further. Sanctions will only be finally lifted, he says, when Syria adopts the Abraham Accords -- essentially to recognise and co-operate with Israel!

So that's where we've reached. Apparently it is now a human rights violation not to endorse the actions of the biggest human rights violator in the region.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

Do you think anyone who decides not to sign up to the Abrahams Accords should be subject to sanctions, Wiley? After all, Israel is occupying Syrian land.

[Wile E. Coyote]

My view is that taking off Syrian sanctions by the EU and US is a good move. It also makes strategic sense for Syria and Lebanon to now rethink their own national interests, and who they really want as allies. Just for now they are in free from what was Assad, Iranian, and Russian influence, which was ensuring they were long term weak failed states.

It's really down to them, but as militarily they have no real influence, joining the Abraham Accords makes some sense, in order to diplomatically pursue their own national interests.

That would be more very bad news for the Palestinians, but I can see it happening.

After all Al-Sharaa has already taken the opportunity, by exploiting the moment Israel was attacking Hezbollah (who were so stretched by acting in support of Hamas, they were no longer able to support Assad) to take Syria.

So it seems to Wiley that Al-Sharaa will prioritise retaining control of the 24-30 million Syrians over the immediate needs of the Palestinians, even if it means signing up to the Abraham Accords.

[Mick Harper]