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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Let's suppose A, an ex-terrorist, has gone legit.
Let's suppose one of his fellow ex-terrorists, B, has also gone legit.
Let's suppose B announces he was a government informer.
Let's suppose B is killed, presumably by the people he was betraying.
Let's suppose it is widely speculated that A had a hand in it.
Let's suppose a national broadcaster, C, reports this speculation.
Let's suppose C invites A to deny involvement, which he does fulsomely.
Let's suppose C in no way endorses the veracity of the speculation one way or the other.
Let's suppose this is considered entirely unexceptional in C's country.
Let's suppose C's broadcasts can be picked up in country D.
Let's suppose A sues C in country D for harming his good name.
Let's suppose a court in D finds in A's favour and orders C to pay A £75,000
Let's suppose C has also incurred two million pounds in legal costs.
Let's suppose BBC licence-payers are stuck with this so Gerry Adams can walk away with seventy-five big ones in his pocket, has had his reputation restored to what it always was but we're not too sure we can say the same about Irish courts.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Ukraine has, throughout the war, been exceptionally fertile in coming up with new ideas, but the latest one is particularly ingenious.
You will have read that Ukrainian drones have hit Russian military airfields and destroyed planes (including nuclear bombers) parked on them, as wide apart as Vladivostok and Murmansk. What you haven't read--and what I have learned from someone I have come to trust--is how they did it.
They equipped large pantechnicons with all the wherewithal for constructing and launching drones and drove them to within flying distance of the airfields. That you knew. But how on earth did they get them across the border? "What's inside, Tovarich?" "Oh, you know, this and that."
The answer is: they didn't. They built them inside Russia. There must be, if you think about it, millions of Ukrainians in Russia. But they didn't risk driving the gear across Russia. They employed locals to do that. 'Got a nice little earner for you, Ivan. Vladivostok, deliver to this address, wagon and contents, and return under you own steam.'
It was reported all participants have safely left Russia. Apart presumably for the Russian drivers who are no doubt being grilled in the Lubyanka.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Russia's peace demands are frequently described as 'maximalist', 'draconian', 'unacceptable' and the rest but let us examine whether this really is so.
Recognition of Russia annexation of Crimea and four other regions of Ukraine
Objecting to this is just wounded pride. It makes no practical difference whether the 'lost territories' are de jure or de facto, they are still lost and there is no prospect of getting them back. [Ukraine would be better of without them in my view.]
Ukraine to withdraw its forces from all of them
It sticks in the craw to give up the thirty percent of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia they still hold without a fight, but they are going to lose them with a fight. The only bit Ukraine should make a stand on is the part of Kherson oblast containing the city of Kherson and their end of the Crimea Canal. Whether Russia will carry on a mediumly disastrous war to get them can be tested at the peace talks.
Ukraine to become a neutral country - ruling out membership of NATO
Ukraine already was a neutral country and non-NATO membership has not affected stupendous levels of support from NATO countries. There are strong doubts whether NATO would accept Ukraine in the foreseeable future anyway. [Wisely, in my opinion.]
Ukraine protects the rights of Russian speakers
And so it should.
Make Russian an official language
And so it should.
Enact a legal ban on glorification of Nazism
And so it should.
Kyiv to lift martial law and hold elections within 100 days
And so it will.
I don't see the problem. If the Ukrainians don't agree, they are free to fight on until they no longer can.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Serbia has been Russia's firm ally forever |
Ever since Serbia emerged from the toils of the Ottoman Empire in the nineteenth century, when it became Yugoslavia in the twentieth and back again to Serbia in the twenty-first. It is a fixed point in the maelstrom of the international system.
Quite soon after the start of the Ukraine War, Serbian artillery shells started to fall on the Russian side of the battle front. No surprise there--everyone using ex-Soviet guns was using ex-Soviet Serbian-made shells. Ukraine probably bought them on Ebay.
| But when, after three years of war, the shells were still blowing up muzhiks in their trenches |
the GRU had to conclude the Serbs were selling shells to Ukraine direct. This made a lot of sense to Serbia who have been trying to curry favour with the EU (they want to join!) so why not show their credentials this way? And earn a ton of much needed foreign exchange on the side. The Russians didn't quite see the matter in the same light
| and have just blown up the factory making the shells. | |
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | Ukraine has, throughout the war, been exceptionally fertile in coming up with new ideas, but the latest one is particularly ingenious.
You will have read that Ukrainian drones have hit Russian military airfields and destroyed planes (including nuclear bombers) parked on them, as wide apart as Vladivostok and Murmansk. What you haven't read--and what I have learned from someone I have come to trust--is how they did it.
They equipped large pantechnicons with all the wherewithal for constructing and launching drones and drove them to within flying distance of the airfields. That you knew. But how on earth did they get them across the border? "What's inside, Tovarich?" "Oh, you know, this and that."
The answer is: they didn't. They built them inside Russia. There must be, if you think about it, millions of Ukrainians in Russia. But they didn't risk driving the gear across Russia. They employed locals to do that. 'Got a nice little earner for you, Ivan. Vladivostok, deliver to this address, wagon and contents, and return under you own steam.'
It was reported all participants have safely left Russia. Apart presumably for the Russian drivers who are no doubt being grilled in the Lubyanka. |
These attacks catch the public imagination, but the defensive use of drones has totally changed the everyday nature of the war since it began 3 years ago.
It's pretty pointless as far as I can see now to launch armoured vehicle or tank attacks using combined manoeuvres to achieve breakthroughs as the drones will spot them, and in real time communicate this to artillery, who will simply destroy the convoy. The front line is now occupied by drone operators who are constantly moving from fox hole to fox hole, (goodbye static defensive trenches). Most of the Ukrainian drones are domestically produced, their dependence on western training has gone, we now need training from them. Most of the Russian casualties are the result of drones. The Russians are trying to beat this through speedy attacks on drone operators by guys on motorbikes, to knock out the drone operators to then inch the front line forward. It's casualty intensive, I see very little hope of Russia capturing anything other than rubble or open ground.
They, the Russians, have created another open poisoned wound. Whilst they are not in economic collapse, the Russians have interest rates of 21% per annum, so they are being forced to up payments to soldiers and their relatives. They have just had to up it again. They are not capturing anything they can use, they have partisans operating in the devastated areas they took earlier so it's just not going to be a profitable war. They can keep it going on the basis of their national wealth fund, ie spend their previous savings, and this is their best bet as ending the war is going to further ruin their civilian economy. (They are building a war economy at the expense of transforming their civilian economy into the servant of the war economy). They are now into an era of massive deficit spending to support their war spectacle, and no way back. The Russians remember what happened under Gorbachev, there will be no peace dividend this time either.
No, they just need to keep going, and going , till they lose, to put off the future pain.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| These attacks catch the public imagination, but the defensive use of drones has totally changed the everyday nature of the war since it began 3 years ago. |
And to think, without the war we would not have known. 'Twas ever thus.
| It's pretty pointless as far as I can see now to launch armoured vehicle or tank attacks using combined manoeuvres to achieve breakthroughs as the drones will spot them, and in real time communicate this to artillery, who will simply destroy the convoy. |
According to my man with the daily updates, the Russians now use motorbikes.
| The front line is now occupied by drone operators who are constantly moving from fox hole to fox hole, (goodbye static defensive trenches). |
I'm not sure about this. Why would he need to be so far up front?
| Most of the Ukrainian drones are domestically produced, their dependence on western training has gone, we now need training from them. |
That is certainly true. Though now that western hi-tec is being drafted into the war, we can expect to overhaul Iran any time now.
| Most of the Russian casualties are the result of drones. The Russians are trying to beat this through speedy attacks on drone operators by guys on motorbikes, to knock out the drone operators to then inch the front line forward. It's casualty intensive, I see very little hope of Russia capturing anything other than rubble or open ground. |
Sorry, I'm answering point by point. But they are inching forward, that's the point. The Ukrainians can do all sorts of things but stopping the Russian advance does not seem to be one of them.
| They, the Russians, have created another open poisoned wound. Whilst they are not in economic collapse, the Russians have interest rates of 21% per annum, so they are being forced to up payments to soldiers and their relatives. They have just had to up it again. They are not capturing anything they can use, they have partisans operating in the devastated areas they took earlier so it's just not going to be a profitable war. They can keep it going on the basis of their national wealth fund, ie spend their previous savings, and this is their best bet as ending the war is going to further ruin their civilian economy. (They are building a war economy at the expense of transforming their civilian economy into the servant of the war economy). They are now into an era of massive deficit spending to support their war spectacle, and no way back. The Russians remember what happened under Gorbachev, there will be no peace dividend this time either. |
This is all irrelevant to the timescale of the war.
| No, they just need to keep going, and going , till they lose, to put off the future pain. |
cf Netanyahu? I agree though I would be referring to Ukraine not Russia.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Well it really depends whether you think the ground gained is worth the loss of life and equipment. Vladimir appears umbothered about the loss of life but he still has to pay higher and higher sums to get new recruits, and get soldiers to renew their contracts, and pay relatives when his soldiers die. He also has to replace equipment and buy in soldiers and shells from abroad.
The rate of advance is slow. Both sides operate along extensively fortified front lines featuring dense minefields, trench/fox hole systems, anti-armour obstacles, and fortified artillery positions. It's all happening under the constant surveillance of all-seeing and attacking drones. These defences impose severer costs on attacking forces and appear to have eliminated potential breakthroughs. The costs of advancing are much much worse than compared with the period at the start of the war, when Russia was rapidly advancing (you had a huge stuck Russian convoy doing nothing for weeks not attacked ) and the period when Ukraine counterattacked and took back its major cities. If they keep fighting it will take Russia about 80 years to reach Kyiv at the current rates of Russian advance.
Ukraine is doubling its drone production year on year, the Russians have gone backwards at sea now the Russian airforce has also been degraded.
There is no profit in this war for Russia. They are now checking all commercial trucks, having just had people spending multiple days in commercial airports due to cheap drones buzzing into their airspace.
They planned for a short (SMO) war and some sanctions and a ticking off, but they are now trapped in a costly forever war.
Don't get me wrong, they still have money for spending on soldiers, equipment and spectaculars for a good few years but there is no profit in wars where you don't capture things of worth.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Well it really depends whether you think the ground gained is worth the loss of life and equipment. |
The actual ground in a meatgrinder is never worth it. It is who wants to stick at it longest.
| Vladimir appears umbothered about the loss of life but he still has to pay higher and higher sums to get new recruits, and get soldiers to renew their contracts, and pay relatives when his soldiers die. He also has to replace equipment and buy in soldiers and shells from abroad. |
Like I keep saying, and have been saying since February 2022, and have been proved correct since 2022, this is irrelevant in the time frame of the war. I wish youse guys would stop whistling in the wind.
| The rate of advance is slow. Both sides operate along extensively fortified front lines featuring dense minefields, trench/fox hole systems, anti-armour obstacles, and fortified artillery positions. It's all happening under the constant surveillance of all-seeing and attacking drones. These defences impose severer costs on attacking forces and appear to have eliminated potential breakthroughs. The costs of advancing are much much worse than compared with the period at the start of the war when Russia was rapidly advancing (you had a huge stuck Russian convoy doing nothing for weeks not attacked ) and the period when Ukraine counterattacked and took back its major cities. If they keep fighting it will take Russia about 80 years to reach Kyiv at the current rates of Russian advance. |
Did I mention it? This is irrelevant for Russia. They are assuming it will be relevant for Ukraine and/or its western backers.
| Ukraine is doubling its drone production year on year, the Russians have gone backwards at sea now the Russian airforce has also been degraded. |
Whistle, whistle.
| There is no profit in this war for Russia. |
Whistle , whistle.
| They are now checking all commercial trucks, having just had people spending multiple days in commercial airports due to cheap drones buzzing into their airspace. |
Whistle, whistle.
| They planned for a short (SMO) war and some sanctions and a ticking off, but they are now trapped in a costly forever war. |
Whistle, whistle.
| Don't get me wrong, they still have money for spending on soldiers, equipment and spectaculars for a good few years, but there is no profit in wars where you don't capture things of worth. |
Hey, Wiley stopped whistling in the wind and recognised that either Ukraine gets out now with whatever it can or it doesn't get out at all.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Well I was wrong when I predicted that Putin would not invade 3 years ago. So I don't think Zelensky is going to listen.
I was also wrong in that I predicted that Russia would win any conventional war quickly. (I thought it would be a failed occupation).
So Vlad is also not returning my emails.
It appears to Wiley that Putin is still trapped in a full invasion mindset and Zelensky is still determined to take back Crimea.
Both sides have dramatically upped their game since the start. Neither side needs to stop at this point. It is just not the critical moment you suggest.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Me too. With two exceptions:
| Zelensky is still determined to take back Crimea. |
He has already indicated several times he isn't. He is trying to avoid having to recognise the loss formally, as part of a peace deal, for internal political reasons. Which is why Putin is insisting on it.
| It is just not the critical moment you suggest. |
I was suggesting--and have been doing so ever since Ukraine's early territorial successes were decisively reversed--that there is no critical point and, given Putin's attitude, there never will be. Either Ukraine gets out now (whenever that is) or it is doomed to endless meat grinding and mainly unsuccessful warfare.
You'd have to admit I've been right so far.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I was suggesting--and have been doing so ever since Ukraine's early territorial successes were decisively reversed--that there is no critical point and, given Putin's attitude, there never will be. Either Ukraine gets out now (whenever that is) or it is doomed to endless meat grinding and mainly unsuccessful warfare.
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Wiley has never believed that meatgrinding is any sort of path to victory for Ukraine. Thay are trying to win the war through exhausting/ destroying Russian logistics, along with sudden counter-attacks in unexpected areas to demonstrate they can still take territory. I see some evidence this is working, just as there is some evidence that Russian meatgrinding tactics are working. (The Russians are slowly gaining space at the cost of losing more men and equipment).
Trying to cut off Crimea is an obvious military thing for Ukraine to do which is why they have hit the Kerch Bridge again, and why the Russians are always trying to support Crimea with an improved alternate land railway link.
Wiley sees no military sense for Ukraine giving up 5 cities with a pre-war population of 1.3 million to get a temporaray ceasefire, which would mean surrendering their currently well-defended positions (both sides are holding the contact line using geographical features that favour the defender.) without security guarantees.
Just my view, as I have said, I have previously been wrong.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Elon is no longer fighting the common enemy, after suffering disastrous losses and not getting sufficient ammunition, his troops have suddenly left the battle zone and are now heading in the direction of Washington.
Don't get on that aircraft, Elon.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley has never believed that meatgrinding is any sort of path to victory for Ukraine. |
That at any rate has been established.
| Thay are trying to win the war through exhausting/ destroying Russian logistics |
That is just an aspect of meatgrinding.
| along with sudden counter-attacks in unexpected areas to demonstrate they can still take territory. |
Another aspect of meatgrinding.
| I see some evidence this is working |
I see evidence that it hasn't worked. They are back where they started on all fronts. A defining characteristic of meatgrinding.
| just as there is some evidence that Russian meatgrinding tactics are working. |
There is not 'just... some evidence'. They've been doing it non-stop for two years.
| (The Russians are slowly gaining space at the cost of losing more men and equipment). |
The definition of meatgrinding.
| Trying to cut off Crimea is an obvious military thing for Ukraine to do which is why they have hit the Kerch Bridge again, and why the Russians are always trying to support Crimea with an improved alternate land railway link. |
Then Ukraine is whistling in the wind. Russia doesn't need Crimea for the present war.
| Wiley sees no military sense for Ukraine giving up 5 cities with a pre-war population of 1.3 million to get a temporary ceasefire, which would mean surrendering their currently well-defended positions (both sides are holding the contact line using geographical features that favour the defender.) without security guarantees. |
What does it matter what Ukraine thinks makes military sense? If they keep on fighting they are going to lose the lot eventually.
| Just my view, as I have said, I have previously been wrong. |
We all went wrong when we could go wrong--when Russia launched the war, when Ukraine didn't fold, when Ukraine counter-attacked successfully, when they stopped counter-attacking successfully.
What I object to is when you go wrong even though the future appears so clearly to be set in stone. Russia has been inching forward continuously, shows no sign of giving up, and the extraneous factors (such as they are) seem to favour the Russians not the Ukrainians.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Elon is no longer fighting the common enemy, after suffering disastrous losses and not getting sufficient ammunition, his troops have suddenly left the battle zone, and are now heading in the direction of Washington. Don't get on that aircraft, Elon. |
No need. CNN ran a piece last night showing how many federal contracts there are with Elon's companies. They came to ten billion dollars. He'll be lucky if he only goes bankrupt.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
No need. CNN ran a piece last night showing how many federal contracts there are with Elon's companies. They came to ten billion dollars. He'll be lucky if he only goes bankrupt. |
Not sure that Trump has fully grasped the basics here, he is unable to exclude anyone from tendering on the grounds that he doesn't like them.
Trump could of course close all these contracts down (under emergency powers?), ie nationalise them, which would leave the President in charge of Space X but, given that SpaceX is now mostly a successful revenue-generating commercial operation, that is more likely to destroy NASA, and Trump, than destroy Elon.
Elon's main source of wealth is Tesla, being anti-Trump will actually help his sales.
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