War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

The whole cosplay, pantomime, with spectators cheering and videoing the coffins of babies, seized as hostages, was bad enough, now it is alleged that it wasn't their mother's remains.

The ignoral is that this carefully choreographed spectacle was covered on mainstream news. Everybody is becoming de-sensitivised to not just violence, now even ritualised humiliation of babies' corpses does not warrant serious media comment.

[Mick Harper]

Hamas wouldn't knowingly have provided a wrong body so they can be guilty only of maladministration. As for the murdered children (one a baby), that wasn't Hamas but some (apparently more gruesome) outfit. I suppose it is possible to mistake murder for neglect forensically but we'll have to see. If the Israelis let anyone see. That will be the clue.

It may be they'll be back at war by then and nobody will much care.

[Wile E. Coyote]

I think it's the gross moral turpitude that is going to ensure it all kicks off again.

[Mick Harper]

I disagree. It will be calculation. AE does not countenance moral judgements. Though they can be converted into felicific calculi if you think you can evaluate the variables over a longish term.

This is why an Israeli annexation of the West Bank is a supportable proposition. Or even a Trumpian Gaza-by-the sea.

[Wile E. Coyote]

I think (maybe wrongly) it's a factor when dealing with terrorism, there is something about beheading videos, kidnapping women and children, ritualised violence, etc that is attractive to fanatics but so repulsive to many that always tips the balance away from the terrorists, regardless of cause. Which is not to say that terrorists can't atone, that Syrian fella has certainly now got mainstream Syrians behind him, but Hamas appear unwilling or unable to do this, at this time.

[Grant]

Don't forget the IRA started to lose when they smeared prison cells with their own shit. Even their most ardent supporters in the USA said, "They did what?"

[Mick Harper]

I don't agree about the dirty protest. The American Irish diaspora was out of the major picture by this time anyway. I thought it something of a high point in the big picture.

As for Hamas, it has to be remembered they had settled down to being a nearly Fatah-style party-of-government when the Israelis presented them with October the Seventh out of the blue. Since Israel had given convincing evidence that Fatah-style led only to greater and greater Jewish expansionism, Hamas could be forgiven for saying, 'Sod this for a game of soldiers.'

I don't think they were far wrong.

[Wile E. Coyote]

It seems to Wiley that the normal terrorist trajectory from "heroes to hated" as they become increasingly more barbaric is repeating itself. I reckon the Palestinians will slowly turn against Hamas, in fact recent polling suggest that 90% of Gazans want peace, and Hamas popularity has roughly halved from 42% to 21%. Yes, Fatah is hated as well so there is definitely a void waiting to be filled by a HTS group that is seen as capable of defending Palestinian interests but is capable of internal discipline and will not stage terrror attacks/rituals without rational thought to the possible consequences. I don't think Hamas is capable of reforming now, they continue to claim victory, but for many Palestinians that would be a return to their ancient homes in Israel, not a return to a devastated Gaza (and even that is now under threat thanks to Hamas terror and Bibi bombings of civilian areas). Ordinary Palestinians like Syrians are capable of making rational judgements over leadership, once the oppurtunity presents.

[Hatty]

Hamas is not popular with Arab states but according to the Jewish Chronicle and the former Secretary of State, Blinken, Hamas recruitment in Gaza has risen. Their increased numbers are surely the result of the IDF's barbarity that led to ICC charges of 'plausible genocide', intentionally attacking civilians and deliberate mass starvation.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Blinken might well be right, they might still have the same number of soldiers in the tunnels, these are after all the size of the London Underound, if food goes in they can support 20,000 or so and the IDF can't clear them out (whilst Hamas holds hostages), the casualities are not occurring underground so the tunnels (unless proven otherwise) are effective.

However, the main number of casualties are civilians. The problem for Hamas is that it might still have the same number of fanatics, but its support amongst the people as a whole (2 million) overground has halved, those people are not protected, not allowed in the tunnels, their homes are being destroyed, they want peace.

Hamas backers/allies Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis are not going to save it. Other Arab nations are not going to save Hamas, they hate them.

But you could be right. Hamas think numbers up, let's keep on provoking the IDF, eventually we will win. They certainly seem to think more staged outrages, and promises to stage another Operation Flood, are going to provoke the IDF and keep the war going, with the odd ceasefire.

I just don't see it, they are not like the Taliban who could disperse into the countryside, mountains, etc. It is a confined area, albeit with effective tunnels for now.

[Mick Harper]

[Grant]

I don't believe in all this tunnels nonsense.

First, where are they? The Israelis have shown us a couple of tunnels supposedly built under hospitals but that's all. If they were the length of the London Underground we would have more evidence.

Second, the Jews are obsessed with tunnels for some reason. Witness the New York tunnels unearthed a couple of years ago which had been built by Orthodox Jews. We always accuse people of what we would do ourselves.

My mate Paul is a painter and decorator who sometimes works for Jews in North London. He told me years ago that one of his clients had built a secret tunnel between two houses.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]