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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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There are reports that Russia has concluded the whole 'Greenland thing' was a deliberate piece of misdirection to cover (a) NATO's intention to militarise Greenland and the Arctic generally and (b) the launch of the 'finish off the Russian shadow fleet' policy.
My initial reaction was to assume this was a typical example of the Kremlin's complete inability to read world strategic runes but, on reflection, I had to concede the facts do tend to support the Russian case. The on-off tariffs, for example, were thoroughly suspect.
Then I remembered how clueless NATO is and returned to my first thought.
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Hatty
Site Admin
In: Berkshire
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Russian leaders are famously paranoid but they do recognise misdirection. Trump's Greenland threats seem a classic example of misdirection (think Mourinho, 'don't look here, look there'). He was always able to get what was already agreed, US military presence on Greenland. The real land grab, for want of a better term, while all the kerfuffle was being played out is Gaza, over which Trump has granted himself suzerainty for life, with nary a challenge. Quite a remarkable coup.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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This is the result of Vladdy the Baddy's determination to break numerous rules and international laws, thinking that this is clever, clever, and Russia will benefit. It won't.
Let's take tankers.
Russia consistently challenges established maritime law rather than complies with these. However, if we take away those laws, who will benefit the most and who will lose the most?
Who has the miltary might to ensure the safe protection of its tankers wherever they go? Who could actually enforce blockades in most parts of the world?
Russia is dependent on oil exports, but it appears unable to protect its large tanker fleet.
Russia was way better off exploiting the ambiguities and limitations of the current very imperfect system (whilst complaining it is a victim), rather than open, consistent, rule-breaking.
That might not be fair, but do away with the maritime rules, what will logically happen? Team Trump are not going to worry that much, maybe Vladdy should give it some thought?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Hatty wrote: | | Russian leaders are famously paranoid but they do recognise misdirection. Trump's Greenland threats seem a classic example of misdirection (think Mourinho, 'don't look here, look there'). He was always able to get what was already agreed, US military presence on Greenland. The real land grab, for want of a better term, while all the kerfuffle was being played out, is Gaza, over which Trump has granted himself suzerainty for life, with nary a challenge. Quite a remarkable coup. |
My prediction is that this will go roughly the same way as the British mandate of 1920 (later approved by the League of Nations in 1922), ie after lots of negative publicity, and a rapidly deteriorating situation, with violence erupting on all sides, the Trump plan will be terminated and left in the hands of...... the United Nations.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The Europeans seem to have at last stumbled on a decisive anti-Russian weapon of war. Italian, German and French navies have all--and apparently in a co-ordinated way--seized Russian 'shadow ships' recently. (This is not the same campaign the Anglo-Americans are waging against Venezuelan, Iranian and Russian shipping, but it all helps.)
Although none of this will affect the war in the short run, it is reported that Kremlin strategists have conceded that it rules out an endless, till the pips squeak, style of low-level combat in Ukraine.
| Unless, of course, the Russians can do something about it. |
The recent accompaniment of an arms shipment to Libya using a Soviet-era subchaser proved to be successful but the problem here is that there are six hundred ships in the shadow fleet and only a hundred suitable escorts in the Russian navy. The fact that most of them have to go through NATO dominated narrow seas makes them second favourite.
The solution being discussed is the equipping of the tankers themselves with guns, missiles, spetsnaz etc. This could be a runner, it is felt, because NATO countries might not want to have actual missile warfare being conducted in their narrow seas! And NATO and non-NATO countries alike might not be wildly in favour of their pristine beaches being covered in black gloop.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | There are credible accounts (and footage) of Russian infantry advancing in the Pokrovsk sector dressed as penguins. It is thought to be for eluding the attention of drones, which it doesn't if there's a Ukrainian at the other end, but maybe it would fool an AI-equipped passive robot.
| "Oh, it's a penguin, I am not allowed to riddle them with dum-dum bullets according to my Prime Directive." |
This is so incredible that I would like confirmation from anyone else out there. If true, what can we conclude about the Russian war effort from it? I'm in two minds. Either they've reached the end of Futility Road or... it is a little bit magnificent. |
It has finally been solved, these are camoflaged thermal protective cloaks that are issued by the Russians for use in snowy conditions.
Keep in mind that standard military camoflage works by hijacking design patterns from nature, ie animals hiding in the undergrowth.
The main problem of the use of these suits is the lack of Russian training whereas before the war the Russians had highly trained Spetznatz, specializing in reconnaissance, sabotage, counter-terrorism and direct action, that would use the suits properly. These brigades were largely destroyed in the early part of the war, and have been replaced by poorly trained ex convicts etc.
The key point with camouflage is that isolated movement against a static backround weakens your camouflage, so the wearer really needs to move in short quick graceful bursts and then stay still for long periods, to maximise the chance of non detection. What is shown in the video is a soldier just walking/waddling forward at a steady continual pace, making it way too easy to pick him out from the snowy background, even with his suit on.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Estonia has now joined the campaign by boarding a St Petersburg-bound tanker. When a teeny-weeny Baltic state doesn't fear retribution from da Bear, who will? But the main plot development is in the Black Sea.
Turkey has asked Ukraine not to challenge Russian tankers near its coasts, for fear of polluting its holiday beaches. (Empty tankers are bad too.) Nowadays what Turkey wants, Turkey gets.
Russia has taken advantage of the loophole by routing its Novorossiysk traffic sharply to port and following the Turkish coast all the way to Istanbul. And presumably the same on the return journey.
Whether Turkey will come to regret having a steady two-way stream of very old, dubiously flagged and variously crewed oil tankers a few miles offshore remains to be seen.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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You'll no doubt remember that, at the start of the war, Elon Musk rode to Ukraine's rescue by setting up an entire Starlink communication net so the Ukrainian armed forces could roger one another without the Russians being able to jam radios or cut down telephone poles.
Later, it was found that drones could receive Starlink via the internet, thereby getting precise real time navigational co-ordinates. Hence a Ukrainian drone on the wing could meet up with a Russian truck on the road. Though not to their mutual advantage.
It was win/win for Ukraine except the Russians in Ukraine started logging into Starlink themselves. Soon their drones were doing to Ukrainian trucks what etc etc.
| But Elon has ridden to the rescue again! |
He stayed up late twiddling with the software and the Russians can't do it anymore. Now Russia is full of voices denouncing Musk as a fascist, while elsewhere there are people asking, 'What took you so long finding that out?'
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The latest (near) assassination of a Russian general has some very odd features about it. Here's the first (I am relying on unverified reports):
| The assailant disguised himself as a food delivery courier and attacked the general on the stairway landing by his flat. He then fled the scene using public transport, discarding his Makarov pistol equipped with silencer in the snow. |
That doesn't sound like the Ukrainian secret service to me. And the second:
| The assassin – one Lubomir Korba – has already been arrested. He was detained in Dubai with the help of the UAE Government, and has now been brought back to Russia. |
In that case, flying to Dubai wasn't a very smart move. Not when presumably he had the world as his oyster. A third oddity:
| His accomplice, Victor Vasin, was apprehended in Moscow. |
What's he doing hanging around in Moscow? And the last one
| A third suspected party – Zinaida Serebritskaya – escaped to Ukraine. |
Lucky for her! Lucky for the FSB? So what's going on? I can't add it up, can you?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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It seems unlikely you have your best general living at home, during a war, in a block of flats where the concierge just buzzes through the Pizza guy.....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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According to the FSB, the third suspect, the woman who has escaped to Ukraine, lived in the flats and had given suspect numero uno, a sixty-five year old who had been given some quick training in wet jobs by the Polish secret service because of some connection (I forget what) with Agent Two.
You can see how the FSB mind worked--is there anyone in the flats with a Ukrainian passport, can we connect them with anyone who flew out of Moscow in the last two days etc etc. The paucity of the theory acquits the FSB of involvement.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The assination attempt on GRU General Alekseev (he is in charge of military intelligence) might be to do with the current scandal over Russian General claims to have taken territory from Ukraine which were in fact fabricated.
The Russian generals claimed to have taken Kupiansk in November 2025 and Colonel General Kuzovlev was awarded the title of Hero of Russia on December 9, only for Putin to find out it wasn't captured at all, there are currently about 50 Russians struggling for survival in 3 pockets in what used to be an area of 25,000 folks. The Colonel General has gone missing.
There are increasing strains between various elements of military and intelligence services over why the SMO/War is not going as well as expected, despite the huge sums of money, stockpiles of weapons and troops used, and why the continual daily successses claimed don't seem to have resulted in much actual progress.
Military intelligence would be key to resolving this ?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | The assination attempt on GRU General Alekseev (he is in charge of military intelligence) might be to do with the current scandal over Russian General claims to have taken territory from Ukraine which were in fact fabricated. |
This is certainly possible. Perhaps Putin felt using the intelligence services to carry out the job was not advisable in the circumstances, hence the air of incompetence attaching to the entire shemozzle.
| The Russian generals claimed to have taken Kupiansk in November 2025 and Colonel General Kuzovlev was awarded the title of Hero of Russia on December 9, only for Putin to find out it wasn't captured at all, there are currently about 50 Russians struggling for survival in 3 pockets in what used to be an area of 25,000 folks. The Colonel General has gone missing. |
I like that last tidbit. You can't have dead Heroes of Russia cluttering up the place.
| There are increasing strains between various elements of military and intelligence services over why the SMO/War is not going as well as expected, despite the huge sums of money, stockpiles of weapons and troops used, and why the continual daily successses claimed don't seem to have resulted in much actual progress. |
He can't assassinate everyone!
| Military intelligence would be key to resolving this ? |
I would still rank (1) Ukraine and (2) domestic opposition higher, but not by much. I'm surprised by the lack of western interest though. That might be a clue... pointing to Ukraine.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| The Telegram platform has been platformed! |
Putin has always been surprisingly relaxed about social messaging (by authoritarian standards) but made sure the number one choice for Russians was the Russian-created Telegram. Accordingly it became the prime vehicle for the Russian armed forces not only to communicate among themselves but to pump out their triumphs to the masses.
| So why has Putin acted so draconically and why now? |
It may be because of the paucity of triumphs lately but my guess is that he's worried about what the military are saying to one another. Telegram has some ingenious privacy devices.
| The army being the only force in the known universe capable of toppling Putin. |
The other apps Russians can access (with difficulty) have got the chop too so Russians (and Russian military folk) are now dependent on the specially designed but unpopular Messenger Max. Specially designed for the state to listen in to what Russians (in and out of uniform) are saying to one another. You can't even hide your IP address.
| Expect Russian brass to start brushing up on their semaphore skills any time soon. | |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The war in Ukraine has reached a perilous state. Not for the combatants but for everyone else.
1. Russia cannot achieve even its minimum war aims of the conquest of the whole of the Donbas.
2. Putin cannot afford to make peace without achieving these minimum war aims.
3. What will Putin do when he recognises the finality of this cleft stick?
4. One option is to 'go nuclear' in some way or another.
5. Although this is unlikely in itself, the consequences are sufficiently bad if he does, it is rational to adopt the 'precautionary principle'.
6. The only feasible method of providing a way out for Putin is to provide him with a golden bridge.
7. The only available golden bridge is to force Ukraine to give up the rest of the Donbas and make peace on that basis.
8. This will be a considerable defeat both for Ukraine and for 'the west'.
9. And for the general notion of a rules-based world order.
10 But it can't be helped.
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