Medium Ukraine (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

Last Week's Great Train Robbery

The Russians had taken to transporting their Iskander missiles southwards from the factory near Moscow attached to ordinary passenger trains, figuring the Ukrainians wouldn't want the bad PR (and the reprisals) if they went round blowing up human shields by the trainload.

The Ukrainians agreed with this analysis. They sent out their teams of undercover agents -- and local resistants -- to (a) join the passengers on the train (b) attach small explosive devices to the relevant couplings, (c) set up a local command centre and (d) send bogus signals to the train cab which resulted in the train going down the wrong track. But the right track for the waiting Ukrainians.

The puzzled Russians very kindly took the passengers off at the first station stop and sent the train onwards towards, as they thought, the battle zone etc etc. It doesn't altogether hang together but I've been in touch with Burt Lancaster's people about making the movie.

Meanwhile you can see a rough cut here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h79wPrC_H34

[Mick Harper]

The above is entirely fictional, I'm afraid. I was fooled by YouTube for beginners. However I am reasonably satisfied by other, more respectable, accounts that the Ukraine War has reached an important moment.

Verified Ukrainian advances have been taking place on a lateral scale, in sufficient depth and for long enough to discount (though not rule out) this is something the Russians have been allowing for tactical -- even seasonal -- reasons. Or the Ukrainians have achieved the gains only by the wholesale expending of reserves.

But more likely it is, at the very least, a new phase in the war. It may be countered by a significant change in Russian methods. It may be swept away by, say, wholesale mobilisation of Russian manpower. We shall only know when the summer campaigning season is in full swing.

It ought to be good news but, with this war, one never knows.

[Wile E. Coyote]

One thing of interest to Wiley is disruptions to the Mosow and St Petersburg internet, this has now laster 2 weeks in the former and 3 weeks in the latter, sparking speculation of a coup. Wiley reckons that the Kremlin is telling the truth they are turning off the internet for security purposes to combat Ukranian drones, the thinking is that there is a real possibility that Ukraine is now independently capable of a combined drone decoy (think spiders web)and ballistic missile attack on these cities, so forcing Russia to shut off the commercial internet.

Locals are fuming, no internet access, is a big loss, for city dwellers. They can afford potatoes and beetroot. This is a heavy price to pay for a few muddy fields in the uncivilised Donbas.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

I have inspected the annals of history. More dictators are removed by their own palace guard than from any other single source. Don't tell him.

[Boreades]

In the Ukraine, Zelensky is also casting nervous looks at his own palace guard. Since several have been fingered by the anti-corruption squads. For "disappearing" large sums of money from the USA. One or two have "gone on holiday" to Israel.

[Mick Harper]

This is not unimportant. Zelensky, as a Jew, has the absolute right not only to permanently reside in Israel but to be safe from extradition to any country (or Court), be they ever so mighty. However, these Hebraic privileges have been somewhat eroded since the days of The Great Ingathering.

It would pay President Zelensky to have some regard to the elision of Ukrainian and Israeli foreign policy. That takes considerable flexibility in these times when alliances seem to be shifting with uncommon speed.

[Boreades]

Is the Ukraine war still on?

It seems the BBC and MSM has decided it's not worthy of continuous market saturation.

Now, it doesn't even appear at all on the BBC News homepage.

[Wile E. Coyote]

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of Eastern Europe, as well as Russia saw the rapid deveopment of a class of corrupt super rich oligarchs. How could have market economies, emerged otherwise?

A government of angels, maybe implementing reform from above ?

The wholsale buying in of a model, based on the Mother of Parliaments?

One, less idealistic answer is a strong man leader, of a one party state, who imposes a market economy, by managing these corrupt folks, or they exit via windows, or arrests. When his work is done he can then hopefully institute a benign liberal democracy.

Another answer is the development of a multi party system, based on parties first funded by nationalistic corrupt competing oligarchs, each accussing the others of corruption, this leads to the state itself becoming more pluralist, a rule of law might develop.

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

It appears to be established now that Ukraine can not only resist further Russian advances but has, for the last two months, been a net advancer. It may be Putin that is looking for, as everybody calls it, the off-ramp.

If this is the case, if this the case, the Iranian War might provide one. The state media can certainly cobble something together -- needing to provide drones for an embattled ally, taking cognisance of the world's fertiliser requirements, NATO being on the warpath -- that would justify the Great Leader announcing that, in the current circumstances entirely beyond his control, the Greater Russia project will have to postponed until more propitiatory times prevail.

Go on, son, give it a whirl. You never know, Zilensky might turn it down flat and then you'll really have Trump on your side.

[Boreades]

[Mick Harper]

The Ukraine War has altered tank warfare in one important respect. In former times, it took one tank firing a single shot to destroy a tank. This is what dictated the organisation of tank formations.

The coming of drones has more or less done for tank formations, they come one at a time now. However it requires multiple drones to destroy that tank. The first one disposes of the netting, the second one seeks out an engine outlet or the turret crease, and so on. Often a dozen or more.

But, generally speaking, one drone is being controlled by one person so now it is the tank destroyers that have to be organised into formations!