| View previous topic :: View next topic |
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
 |
|
Iran was bombed twice whilst the Strait was open. It is now being bombed again for not opening up the Strait.
If they did open the Strait are you saying that the US would not bomb them again?
It is clear to Wiley that the IRGC and Iranian hardlinners are fighting back by controlling the Strait, and bombing the USs' Gulf allies.
Iranians are in Adam Smiths words prioritising defence over opulence. (This is why Smith favoured the Navigation Acts, these protectionist Acts benefited British interests' its defence and shipping).
Dont get me wrong I am against the Mullahs, the IRGC, the revolution, the proxies etc and am pro free trade.
But what these folks are doing is rational. If you have a bigger, much stronger man in a chokehold, you dont agree to release him, you choke him out, that is until you are 100% convinced he is tapping.
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
And if they still dont tap, you apply more force to your original choke, in this case the IRGC are using their proxies the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as well...
We are back up to $100 plus a barrel for Brent Crude.
The markets were (rightly) pricing in that the world could survive the first choke so the (hardliners) naturally are adding more force by attacking ships in two straits........
This looks rational to Wiley.
In fact Ukraine (hurrah for them....) is trying something similar, with some sucess.....
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Wiley wrote: | | Iran was bombed twice whilst the Strait was open. It is now being bombed again for not opening up the Strait. |
You'd have to say what you are referring to here.
| If they did open the Strait are you saying that the US would not bomb them again? |
No, I am not saying that. [Though I'd love to have an argument over this some other time.] I am saying that the US bombed the Iranians (this time) because they bombed ships passing through the Strait.
| It is clear to Wiley that the IRGC and Iranian hardlinners are fighting back by controlling the Strait, and bombing the USs' Gulf allies. |
It is clear to Mick that the hardliners recognised that if the peace process initiated by the MoU was allowed to play out--including it not playing out but just being left as a de facto infinite armistice -- Iran would be well on its way to being a peaceable, prosperous oil state. A state that would have no place for hardliners.
| Iranians are in Adam Smiths words prioritising defence over opulence. (This is why Smith favoured the Navigation Acts, these protectionist Acts benefited British interests' its defence and shipping). |
I would put it as 'prioritising politics over economics'.
| Dont get me wrong I am against the Mullahs, the IRGC, the revolution, the proxies etc and am pro free trade. |
Don't protest too much. I would never get that wrong about you. I'm sure you would not get me wrong likewise.
| But what these folks are doing is rational. If you have a bigger, much stronger man in a chokehold, you dont agree to release him, you choke him out, that is until you are 100% convinced he is tapping. |
It may be rational, but is it sensible? The same question can be levelled at Trump.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Wiley wrote: | | And if they still dont tap, you apply more force to your original choke, in this case the IRGC are using their proxies the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as well... |
Indeed.
| We are back up to $100 plus a barrel for Brent Crude. |
But we've been there before and the world survived, tell them.
| The markets were (rightly) pricing in that the world could survive the first choke so the (hardliners) naturally are adding more force by attacking ships in two straits........ |
OK
| This looks rational to Wiley. |
It may turn out to be correct. But I still believe Trump will 'win' in the end. Whatever that means.
| In fact Ukraine (hurrah for them....) is trying something similar, with some sucess..... |
They are not fighting an asymmetric war, so the comparison does not apply.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
My best guess is that Trump is now going in with the marines, he is not negotiating whilst under a choke.
Not negotiating is both rational and sensible, on Trumps part, if you can break the choke you should.
Trump thinks they can win, (like you) but wants to give Iran a last chance to surrender.
Iranian surrender aint going to happen.......
The control of the strait (the hill) is something that Iranian hardliners are willing to die for (on) .
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
The Library Index 
FAQ 
Search
Register
Profile 
Log in to check your private messages 
Log in 
