The Importance of Sport (NEW CONCEPTS)

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

There's nothing particularly objectionable to Gianni Infantino's plan to sell off 10% of the World Cup and spread the dosh round the various FA's. The poorer ones could do with the money now rather than wait until the long, distant future.

Except it's Gianni Infantino doing it. As soon as he announced it was going to be handled by Donald Trump's son-in-law's brother ('of all the financiers in all the world...') it didn't take UEFA long to conclude the whole thing was a money/power grab by the Bald Eagle.

[Mick Harper]

The Eddie Howe departure from Newcastle prompts two big questions, one parochial and one universal. The one affecting Newcastle alone is that their Saudi owners are having second thoughts about their headlong rush into the very un-Saudi world of big time sport promotion.

It is certainly not proving to be a money-spinner for their Sovereign Fund who have lost a reported billion dollars in their weird, and now largely abandoned, attempt to capture world golf and their boxing and Formula One initiatives have been equally unfruitful.

As for football specifically, the more they pile cash into the building of top o' the line stadiums for ersatz teams staffed by vastly expensive but fading and/or disaffected imported footballers, the more derision the whole enterprise earns from the outside world. But they can't close that down, they've got a World Cup to host in 2034. 'Thanks a bundle, Gianni.' 'No, thank you, MBS.'

What the Saudis can do is look at how well the 'Newcastle model' is working...

[Mick Harper]

Newcastle United is, technically speaking, the richest football club in the world. The Saudi Sovereign Fund puts American sports billionaires and Russian oligarchs in the deepest, darkest penumbra.

But it has proved to be of no account!

Once a little bit of cash has been splashed, and a decent outfit has been put together, you are left with both European and English spending limits to contend with. These are based on things like gate money, fan merchandising, commercial sponsorship and playing success.

Which Newcastle haven't got and never will have, the way the cards have been stacked.

When you are situated in a poor part of Britain that nobody in the world has ever heard of, you might--if you're very lucky and you have a nifty manager--get into the middle reaches of the Premier League. But even a trillion trillion riyals in the coffers won't get you any higher than that in the long run because you'll have to sell off your stars every year and buy in cheaper prospects just to avoid point deductions and Eurobans.

Come on, Crown Prince, did you really think the cartel of big clubs was going to allow any Tom, Dick or Mohammed to come along and duke it out with them just because they're rich beyond the dreams of Croesus?

[Mick Harper]

An Illustration of Batty Football Economics

Vinicius Jnr is one of the absolute elite players, worth let's say £150 million. He is happy playing for Real Madrid and they are happy for him to play for them except... he is in the last year of his contract so

* Real Madrid want him to sign a new contract or
* If he won't, sell him to another club for as much as possible whereas
* Vini wants a better contract to stay or
* If they won't offer him one, go to a club he wants to play for, which might not be the one offering the most money to Real Madrid

According to normally reliable reports, Madrid have offered him a new contract but it is 'slightly lower' than what Vini thinks it should be. Madrid have now issued an ultimatum: sign or we're selling you. So far, so normal in the commercial world of buying and selling, supply and demand, free labour and legal restraints. What takes the whole thing out of normal is that in a year's time

* Vini will still be be worth £150 million
* But his value to Real Madrid will be nil
* The difference between the two contracts is nothing compared to the difference between zero and £150 million
* So why haven't Real offered him what he wants?
* But why hasn't Vini refused to negotiate?

That £150 million theoretically goes to him, he can choose his next club without any restraints -- it could even be Real Madrid. By refusing to negotiate, Vini gets to play another season for Real Madrid, which he wants to do, and Real Madrid can't sell him if he doesn't want to go.

It is largely a matter of playing chicken. As I will describe next.

[Mick Harper]

For some reason that I have never understood, when footballers are 'out of contract' they cease to be worth their transfer fee. When they are nearing the end of their contract, that transfer fee starts going down.

The reason this is odd is that it ought to make no difference to the buying club. If Vinicius Jnr is worth £150 million, this is true irrespective of his contract-status. Yet...

* Selling clubs accept a reduced transfer fee. But why? If the player is worth more, why aren't other clubs coming in to buy the player by offering a bit more. And then other clubs until the full value is reached.

* Out of contract players accept normal wages with a top up because they have arrived 'free' but never to the extent of their transfer worth. Why don't other clubs offer him even higher wages to get such a cheap and available player? And so on until his transfer worth is reached.

In the Vinicius case, Arsenal are reported to have offered him 'stupendous wages' to persuade him to come to the Emirates. But it won't be £150 million amortised over the length of his new contract plus his normal wages, will it?

And, it is also reported, Real Madrid will let him go to Arsenal if they pay them a suitable transfer fee, but it won't be anywhere near £150 million, will it? Arsenal, of course, know that Real Madrid would prefer, say, eighty million now rather than get nothing in a year's time. But so does every other club. Why aren't Chelsea offering eighty-five million? And so on.

Somewhere money is disappearing at a rate of knots.

[Mick Harper]

If it comes down to a tug o' war between Real Madrid and Arsenal for Vinicius's hand in marriage, these are the relevant facts

[Mick Harper]

Arsenal have bought Christos Tzolis for 35 million and are buying Guimaraes for 85 million. They are in for Vinicius who's not likely to 'get over the line', as they say on The Transfer Show, for less than a hundred million.

Arsenal are regularly mentioned to be looking to 'strengthen the squad', as the Sky pundits also say, with this player or that player and you'd have to pay fifty million a head to do that, given the standard of the present squad. Everyone anticipates one or two will dribble in at some stage of the window. If only to spite Spurs.

[Mick Harper]

Fancy a bit of disgraceful stereotyping?

[Mick Harper]

Quite a Nifty Idea

[Mick Harper]

What people don't appreciate about Gianni's Infanticide is that his was a perfectly ordinary method of solving a problem that frequently assails large corporations. When experiencing a sudden inrush of cash, they return part of it to the shareholders because otherwise it would be sitting in a bank earning very little. And be a standing invitation to corporate raiders and all too likely to result in unwise speculative ventures.

If he had proceeded quietly--and had left any Trump connections firmly out of the picture--nobody would have said a dicky bird.

[Mick Harper]

Once Upon A Time

There were two English wunderkids called Jude Bellingham and Jadon Sancho. They played for Borussia Dortmund in a far-off country called Germany. One of them was transferred to fabled Real Madrid for a great deal of money and became the greatest footballer in the world at the moment, some say (GFINTWATMSS for short).

The other one went for even more money to Manchester United where he didn't work out. After being loaned out, first to Borussia Dortmund then to Chelsea and finally to Aston Villa, he ended up back at United where his contract has now run out and won't be renewed. Hence Jadon is now clubless.

And the moral of this story is...

[Mick Harper]

Everyone is chortling about Arsenal getting Bruno Guimarães from Newcastle for £75 million. They are comparing it with the transfers of comparable players between Premier League teams so far in the window

Morgan Rogers £117 million
Elliot Andersen £116 million
Sandro Tonali £93 million
Mateus Fernando £85 million

and falling about at Newcastle being taken for such a ride: But they should hold their horses.

It is true, in terms of current performance on the pitch, that Guimarães is probably the best of the five but Newcastle's flayers are overlooking the most important factor. Bruno is twenty-eight. When his new contract is up he will be worth something, but not very much. Arsenal will be very lucky not to drop fifty million on the transaction overall.

The other four will be in the prime of their playing careers when their contracts are nearing their ends and the purchasing club will likely get its money back by moving them on. Given the way the market is moving, they might easily double their money.