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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Nations are preparing for Trump to leave. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, have now signed a pact officially named the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, it contains a collective defense clause, an armed attack against one member state will be considered an attack against all.
So at first sight its a defensive alliance of the sunni muslims. They feel threatened. They know that the US is not an ally to be counted on anymore.
The Guardians take:
| Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have signed a mutual defence agreement, placing three of the Muslim world’s most influential states into a Nato-style pact, as Riyadh confronts attacks from Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. |
Why do they mention the Houthis.....?
| The three Sunni Muslim-led countries are concerned by increasing regional jeopardy after the US-Israeli war on the Shia government in Iran, with Donald Trump unable to contain ?the conflict. |
They are building a new defensive Sunni security architecture for the whole region. Or are they?
| Riyadh has already developed a 10-nation naval coalition that is supposed to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis say they are firing only on Saudi-linked shipping, and there is no immediate sign that the naval coalition is deterring the Houthis. |
| Yemeni sources said recently they believed Saudi Arabia was preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, in a move to break their chokehold on Saudi oil exports through the southern Red Sea. |
So less like a purely defensive agreement, but preperation for the Saudis and others to take back the vital Bab el-Mandeb strait.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Iran has strayed into, for it, a hopeless impasse. They have left the next step up to America -- 'to behave correctly' in President Masoud Pezeshkian's words.
Now, some might suppose this is giving the IRGC carte blanche since America can never behave correctly in their eyes. But this 'ultimatum' is coming from a dove not a hawk. Someone who is seeking the famous off-ramp, not folks intent on pot-boiling the Gulf to perdition.
America needs do nothing. Just wait and see how the Iranian/ Omani Agreement plays out and it can start letting letting Iranian ships through the cordon (plus all the other goodies promised Iran for good behaviour) accordingly, as other people's ships go in and out of the Strait.
Since Iran is desperate this happens and America isn't, everything is in favour of the Great Satan. Whether he, i.e. Donald Trump, and his opposite number, the IRGC, allow this gradual return to peace and prosperity remains to be seen.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Nations are preparing for Trump to leave. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, have now signed a pact officially named the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, it contains a collective defense clause, an armed attack against one member state will be considered an attack against all. |
They were comparing it to NATO. Especially that last sentence. Leaving aside that, while NATO does have such a clause, it's inoperable since NATO also has a unanimity clause, so anyone who doesn't feel like joining in will refuse to pass the decision. We'll see what happens when, say, India and Pakistan go at it again.
| So at first sight its a defensive alliance of the sunni muslims. |
That occurred to me too but was carefully ignored by the commentators. Even though the same commentators went on to name possible adversaries -- Iran, Iraq, Houthis, Hezbollah -- who are all Shia.
| They feel threatened. They know that the US is not an ally to be counted on anymore. |
If I was them, I'd add the US as a possible adversary.
| The Guardians take: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have signed a mutual defence agreement, placing three of the Muslim world’s most influential states into a Nato-style pact, as Riyadh confronts attacks from Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. |
That's the sort of thing I was referring to.
Why do they mention the Houthis.....?
The three Sunni Muslim-led countries are concerned by increasing regional jeopardy after the US-Israeli war on the Shia government in Iran, with Donald Trump unable to contain the conflict. |
So the Guardian mentioned the religious dimension? Interesting.
They are building a new defensive Sunni security architecture for the whole region. Or are they?
Riyadh has already developed a 10-nation naval coalition that is supposed to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. |
Good luck with that. It takes more than ten navies to stop a Houthi with a pick-up truck and a missile in the back.
| The Houthis say they are firing only on Saudi-linked shipping, and there is no immediate sign that the naval coalition is deterring the Houthis. |
They just fired on an Indian ship. Nobody said whether it was transporting Saudi goods.
| Yemeni sources said recently they believed Saudi Arabia was preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, in a move to break their chokehold on Saudi oil exports through the southern Red Sea. |
The Saudis started it by bombing Sana'a airport. The Houthis had done nothing up to that point.
| So less like a purely defensive agreement, but preperation for the Saudis and others to take back the vital Bab el-Mandeb strait. |
I don't accept this at all. There are too many Big Wheels using the Bab el-Mandeb strait for anyone to 'take it back'.
These three medium-sized wheels suddenly find themselves (unusually) with no beefs amongst themselves so are going in for a bit of window-dressing they hope will get them into various peace conferences that are on the horizon. The Pact will be a total dead-letter for anything more ambitious. A bit like NATO really.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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P.S. Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Nobody knows exactly how they acquired them but if they're in a coalition with Saudi Arabia, what's to stop them passing the technology to the Saudis on the q.t.? After all, Saudi Arabia is as rich as Croesus and Pakistan hasn't got two pennies to rub together. It's a marriage made in Sunni heaven.
Of course Israel doesn't want the Saudis having nukes but what do they count for nowadays? Not to mention Israel and Saudi Arabia being de facto allies since 1948. America on the other hand might not be entirely averse to Iran believing the Saudis have got the odd nuke stashed away somewhere. Or know someone who has.
As for Turkey... no, I'm not going there. A nuclear-armed Erdogan doesn't bear thinking about.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Team Trump are signaling their boss.......they approve of his latest pivot.
| Rubio wrote: | | The president of Peace |
Bessant has announced that sanctions are suffocating Iran, and that Irans attemp to monetise the Strait are doomed to failiure, the future Iranian economy is doomed to failiure.
Iran is now showing that they will keep up its Taliban strategy of humiliating the US out of the region, whatever the economic cost, to its population, as this miltarism, matyrdom, hardship, victimisation at the hands of the greater and lesser Satan, actually boosts the support of the religious and IRGC hardliners.
Looking forward we can see the future of what will be normal US Iran relations, based.
Failed diplomacy.......sanctions....international condemnation....more sanctions...yet more sanctions.....err....imminent famine.....international humaintarian aid...more targeted sanctions........bombings......failed diplomacy.
Of the key chokepoints
Strait of Hormuz control is almost certainly lost to Iran.
The key Strait is now Bab el-Mandeb, which is currently contested, the question is can Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt (control of the key Suez canal) keeep this Strait open, Europe needs to throw its weight behind this effort. They all have a big self interest in doing so and the former four are collectively capable of taking on Iran and the Houthis....
If suceesful then this will long term weakon Iranian control of Hormuz....much more than any US sanctions or bombings will....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Team Trump are signaling their boss.......they approve of his latest pivot. Rubio wrote: The president of Peace |
What, like he said he was going to be, constantly, during his electioneering?
| Bessant has announced that sanctions are suffocating Iran, and that Irans attemp to monetise the Strait are doomed to failiure, the future Iranian economy is doomed to failiure. |
The Treasury Man's not wrong there. All that sturm and drang from his Pentagon opposite number wasn't necessary after all.
| Iran is now showing that they will keep up its Taliban strategy of humiliating the US out of the region, whatever the economic cost, to its population, as this miltarism, matyrdom, hardship, victimisation at the hands of the greater and lesser Satan, actually boosts the support of the religious and IRGC hardliners. |
So true. Sturm and drang does that to people. A quiet suffocation by distant warships would have had the IRGC in a right pickle.
| Looking forward we can see the future of what will be normal US Iran relations, based. Failed diplomacy.......sanctions....international condemnation....more sanctions...yet more sanctions.....err....imminent famine.....international humaintarian aid...more targeted sanctions........bombings......failed diplomacy. |
Yes, when weirdos are in charge on both sides it tends to be never-ending. Between them, they'll always find a way to keep the pot boiling..
| Of the key chokepoints Strait of Hormuz control is almost certainly lost to Iran. |
We will have to contiuue to agree to disagree on that one.
| The key Strait is now Bab el-Mandeb, which is currently contested, the question is can Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt (control of the key Suez canal) keeep this Strait open, Europe needs to throw its weight behind this effort. They all have a big self interest in doing so and the former four are collectively cpable of taking on Iran and the Houthis.... |
And that one.
| If suceesful then this will long term weakon Iranian control of Hormuz....much more than any US sanctions or bombings will.... |
This is by far the most interesting question. The Iranian regime had, before the US/ Israeli interventions, been dealt one hammer blow after another. Their proxies were either reeling or departing and the same might be said for their own people at home as well. The entire Islamic World Revolution, inside and outside Iran, was in danger.
It's almost as if either America or Israel wanted to prop up the regime for some purpose of their own. I wonder which one.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Many of us old-school types had assumed that 'territory', by definition, referred to land and hence 'territorial waters' consisted of sea adjacent to that land. But President Trump's announcement of his ambition to make the Strait of Hormuz a 'territory of the United States' has had us all rushing to consult our authoritative sources.
Clearly the adjacent 'territory' (in the old sense) to the Strait of Hormuz is not presently an integral part of the United States so, unless the President intends to annex the relevant coastal areas of Iran and Oman, we must look for new definitions. 'A non-contiguous marine territory' is one suggestion. 'A bunch of bollocks' is another.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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We should thank Donald for reminding us the strateic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, after all when he commenced his ill fated war against Iran, he totally ignored all this.
Hopefully a painful lesson, now well learnt.
If Trump is now to secure international co-operation, whether its military or diplomatic, to return the strait to an international waterway, with freedom of naviagation, then a second lesson might also need to be learnt.
Repeated juvenilia, about the Strait becomig US territory are obviously not at all helpful, and are increasing the chances of the US becoming even more isolated, trapped in a faraway, forever war.
Is that really worth it for a silly joke?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | If Trump is now to secure international co-operation, whether its military or diplomatic, to return the strait to an international waterway, with freedom of naviagation |
One hopes not. There are already too many voices being heard. The whole point of international waterways is nobody says anything. They just all pile through. This is what Iran keeps on forgetting, it makes no difference what private deals it makes with the US or with Oman, sooner or later everyone will just be piling through.
Iranians can then either become Houthis or they can become a sovereign nation. Even pariah states learn these things eventually.
| then a second lesson might also need to be learnt. |
I've forgotten what the first one was. Oh yes, the importance of the Strait (though not to America).
| Repeated juvenilia, about the Strait becomig US territory are obviously not at all helpful, and are increasing the chances of the US becoming even more isolated, trapped in a faraway, forever war. Is that really worth it for a silly joke? |
I entirely agree with you. Unless Trump is pursuing a policy of deliberately preventing Iran coming to a settlement. I accept this would ordinarily be a subtlety too far for him, but it is at least possible and rational.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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There were intensive debates among the talking heads this weekend about whether Trump will blink first or Iran will. I cannot predict who it will be but I do know the relevant considerations for either side are not what the experts claimed they are.
The November mid-terms
Political pundits are always obsessed with electoral prospects. I doubt Trump is. He will never have to face elections ever again so what has he to fear from the mid-terms? He already knows he will lose control of the House -- and maybe the Senate -- but this is, to some extent, advantageous for him. He hasn't been getting his way for some time now, now he has a ready-made Democrat majority to blame.
He may even be impeached but 'ol Donald understands that would be a fabulous exit, at the hands of spiteful 'socialists' not the American people. It would fill his last years in office so nobody will notice what a dreadful failure he's been.
Unrest in the US Navy
The poor dears are jumping from the decks of the Abraham Lincoln because it has been 'on station' too long and they haven't had shore leave for nine months. Do my a favour. Life aboard a USS carrier is a lot nicer than shore leave in Dar es Salaam. It was probably one man falling overboard and some matelots griping about their lot, as they are always wont to do. The anti-Trump MSM did the rest.
The world economy is going down the drain
No it isn't. And certainly America's isn't. In fact when the Strait is open for business there'll be all kinds of dislocations as vast new supplies come on stream to join all the other streams that have meanwhile started up.
The Iranians are used to hardship, sanctions etc
True, but they are not used to an economy reliant on both exports and imports having to go overland. We'll see how much hardship they will put up with when everything really does go pear-shaped. When people are fighting in the streets for scarcities and the government has insufficient oil receipts to stop them.
My money is (just about) on Trump pulling off a pyrrhic victory.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
My money is (just about) on Trump pulling off a pyrrhic victory. |
Which of the stated objetives do you think Trump will acheive?
All of them?
| Karoline Leavitt wrote: | | “At the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, launched last weekend, President Trump laid out clear objectives to the American people on what the U.S. military seeks to accomplish through these major combat operations. Number one, destroy the regime’s deadly ballistic missiles and completely raze their missile industry to the ground. Number two, annihilate the Iranian regime’s navy… Number three, Operation Epic Fury will ensure the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the free world and attack our armed forces… Number four, this mission will guarantee Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.” |
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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There is really not much evidence that bread riots will be more sucessful than those that occurred before the war, it could be argued that the war has helped cement an unpopular government, as the IRGC has now the excuse that it is the US blockade and bombing campaigns that are causing the shortages.
However lets suppose it did, lets suppose the Iran regime disintergrates, and you even get a pro western government, you are then going to get something akin to Yemen,.... ie a civil war, with the Shia insurgents, then trying to disrupt and control Hormuz, to regain power...
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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My money is (just about) on Trump pulling off a pyrrhic victory.
Which of the stated objetives do you think Trump will acheive? All of them? |
None of the ones you mention vide Karoline Leavitt (who we shall deeply miss). That's why I called it a pyrrhic victory.
| There is really not much evidence that bread riots will be more sucessful than those that occurred before the war |
They weren't bread riots. Though they are evidence of the volatile nature of Iranians when it comes to everything-riots.
| it could be argued that the war has helped cement an unpopular government, as the IRGC has now the excuse that it is the US blockade and bombing campaigns that are causing the shortages. |
It can't be argued, it's an obvious fact.
| However lets suppose it did, lets suppose the Iran regime disintergrates, and you even get a pro western government |
Can I stop you there? The Iranian regime will do a deal with Trump long before that happens. That's my whole argument.
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